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Vehicles
Roadmap to 2030+
Roadmap to 2030+
Presentation handout
x
xx subtitle xxx
xxx max 2 lines xxx
April 27, 2016
xxx byline xxx
1
xx
x max. 2 lines featuring authors and/or CC xxx
xxx month, year xxx
2
STUDY
Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
1. Background and Motivation
In October 2014, the 2030 Climate and Energy Policy Framework set a binding target of 40% for the
reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030 compared to 2005, along with non-binding
targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements. The overall 40% GHG reduction
target includes a 30% reduction for non-ETS sectors that includes transport.
The absence of a long-term regulatory framework – standards for new vehicle GHG emissions,
carbon intensity of fuels and use of renewable fuels are defined only until 2020/2021 – is creating
uncertainty for investment in low carbon vehicle and fuel technologies. This study proposes a view
on technical achievability, infrastructure requirements, customer acceptance and costs to society of
GHG abatement measures to derive supporting policies.
For this purpose, Roland Berger defined an Integrated Roadmap for EU Road Transport
Decarbonization to 2030 and beyond. The study was commissioned to identify possible reductions
in GHG emissions by considering the key elements of technical achievability, infrastructure needs,
customer acceptance and which policies, currently being pursued, would lead to greater integration
between the automotive and fuel sectors in order to meet the challenging decarbonization goals set
out to 2030 and beyond. This study aims to provide an integrated roadmap taking into account the
feasibility of all fuel and vehicle technologies along with infrastructure needs and the recommended
policy framework beyond 2020. A key consideration was to identify a roadmap with the lowest,
achievable GHG abatement costs to society.
Existing data and views from a very broad range of accepted studies and stakeholders were used in
the performance of this study.
2. Modelling approach and assumptions for reference case
The study quantifies, in a realistic reference case, potential GHG emission reductions under the
current regulatory framework with predicted market improvements. The abatement effect of
enabling vehicle and fuel technologies is assessed with a comprehensive vehicle fleet and fuel
model for EU-28, covering GHG emissions from passenger cars, light commercial vehicle and other
commercial vehicles as well as indirect emissions from fuel and electricity production.
For the model, the likely powertrain mix for different vehicle groups until 2030 has been derived.
These powertrain mix forecasts are based on projected fuel and vehicle costs for conventional
internal combustion engines (ICE), mild and full hybrids, and alternative powertrains such as plug-in
hybrids (PHEV), battery electric vehicles (BEV), natural gas vehicles (CNG) and fuel cell electric
vehicles (FCV). The reference case predicts, within two different scenarios for oil price development
and battery technology progress, an expected market development for each technology under the
current regulatory framework. For the reference case, the model assumed extension of the existing
legislation to 2030, without the addition of any other policies.
3
STUDY
Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
After comparing transport sector emissions under the current regulatory framework with the 2030
GHG emissions reduction targets1, technologies were identified to achieve additional GHG
abatement at the lowest cost to society. In order for these technologies to contribute to the
abatement of road transport sector GHG emissions, the recommended policies need to address the
current obstacles these technologies face.
Figure 1: Approach for development of integrated roadmap
Vehicle fleet and fuel
Reference case GHG emission reduction
Additional cost-efficient
model for EU28
(2 scenarios within current regulatory framework)
GHG emission
reduction
until 2030 (and beyond)
and
supporting policies
Indirect
emission
issions
(WTT)
em
G
H
G
HDVs
Scenario
A
Direct
LCVs
B
emission
Supporting
(TTW)
policies
Gap to TTW
Pass.
reduction
cars
aspiration
Cost-efficient
abatement measures
GHG emissions
GHG emissions
GHG emissions
Additional abatement
today
reference case 2020/21
reference case 2030
potential until 2030
Scenario A: low oil price, high battery cost Scenario B: high oil price, low battery cost 1) EU 2030 Climate & Energy Policy Framework (2014)
EU 2030 Energy and Climate Package (2014) aspiration of -30% GHG emission vs. 2005
Source: Roland Berger
3. GHG emissions reduction towards 2030 in reference case
Based on assumptions developed in conjunction with a wide range of stakeholder input and
reference studies regarding vehicle fleet development and the current regulatory framework, the
study has shown that the road transport sector will
> Significantly reduce tank-to-wheel GHG emissions by 2030 to 647 Mton CO2e/a. This represents
a reduction of 29% compared to 2005 levels and is close to the reference level chosen for this
study of -30% vs 2005 based on tank-to-wheel emissions. The reference level was set based on
the 2030 non ETS target and the EC White Paper 2011 methodology of measuring transport
emissions (tank-to- wheel).
1 The Climate & Energy Policy Framework from 2014 aims to achieve a 30% reduction in GHG emissions below the 2005
level until 2030 in non-ETS sectors. The 2011 White Paper for Transport defines transport emissions to be calculated on a
tank-to-wheel basis.
4
STUDY
Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
The study also shows that the continuation of the current policies for vehicle emissions and
renewable fuels obligations will deliver well-to-wheel GHG emission reduction from 1,100 Mton
CO2e/a in 2015 to 862 Mton CO2e/a.in 2030.
5
STUDY
Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
Figure 2: EU-28 road transport sector GHG emissions1) in reference case (Scenario A: low oil price) [Mton CO2e/a]
Development under current
Improvements
1,300
Historical
1,196
regulatory framework
vs. 2015
vs. 2005
1,200
1,143
1,100
1,100
Indirect emissions
1,000
913
-22%
(well-to-tank)
-28%
900
872
862
838
800
-23%
-29%
700
6472)
600
TTW GHG
500
emission
reduction
400
Direct emissions
aspiration 30%
300
vs. 20053) to
(tank-to-wheel)
639 Mton CO e
200
2
100
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
vehicles built since 2015
vehicles built before 2015
GHG emission reduction aspiration road transport 2030
1) Fleet emissions of passenger cars and commercial vehicles, excluding two-wheelers, biofuels considered TTW carbon-neutral
2) Scenario A: low oil price, high battery cost 3) Based on EU 2030 Climate & Energy Framework (2014) reduction aspiration for non-ETS sectors
Source: UNFCCC/EEA; EU 2030 Climate & Energy Framework; Roland Berger
The study shows that moving forward from 2015 optimized ICEs (gasoline and diesel) and biofuels
usage are the major contributors to the sector's GHG emission reduction with significant
improvements and the subsequent penetration of effective technologies into the fleet. Despite the
expected reduction in cost of alternative technologies, the share of alternative new car sales will
remain relatively small and their influence on overall emissions currently remains marginal. Even
until 2030 many alternative powertrain technologies such as PHEV, BEV and FCV lack relative cost
competitiveness but are important corner stones in vehicle manufacturers' CO2 emission
compliance strategies.
Figure 3: Road transport direct GHG emissions by influencing factor 2015 vs. 2030 [Mton CO2e/a]
Larger
More/less
Higher ICE
More
More BEVs/
More
Overall effect
Fleet
mileage2)
efficiency3)
MH and FH3)
PHEVs/CNGs3)
biofuels4)
∑
∑
-191
Passenger
35
-21
cars (PC)
-158
-1
-7
-11
-163
18
-64
Commercial
31
vehicles (CV)
-1
-3
-9
-28
ICE – Internal combustion engine MH – Mild hybrid FH – Full hybrid BEV – Battery electric vehicle PHEV – Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicle CNG – Compressed natural gas
1) Biofuels accounted as TTW zero CO emission 2) Average annual mileage per vehicle 3) Higher penetration in fleet compared to 2015
(fleet renewal effect)
2
4) Increasing E10 share in gasoline fuel until 2030, increasing FAME and HVO shares in Diesel fuels
Source: Roland Berger
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STUDY
Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
Bringing optimized ICEs as well as alternative fuels and powertrain technologies to market
represents a major challenge for the oil and auto industries and will account for EUR 380-390 bn of
cumulated incremental powertrain costs from 2015 until 2030 (average incremental powertrain cost
2020 vs 2010: approx. EUR 1,700 per vehicle)
The incremental powertrain costs identified have the following overall effects:
> Cumulated GHG abatement of approx. 1,100 Mton CO2e/a,
> Fuel cost savings between EUR 170 and 220 bn and
> Average societal abatement cost of approx. ~ 150- 200 EUR/ton CO2e after deduction of fuel
savings depending on the oil price scenario
Figure 4: Effect of current policy framework for GHG emission abatement – Low oil price scenario
Target achievement increases
…incurs EUR 383 bn
…abates CO e 1,090 Mton
…saves EUR 167 bn fuel
2
PT cost by EUR 1,687 and…
additional costs for society
GHG emissions
costs for society
Average additional powertrain
Additional powertrain
WTW GHG abatement p.a.
Fuel cost savings p.a.
cost per vehicle [EUR/vehicle]
costs (society) p.a. [EUR bn]
[CO e]
[EUR bn]
2
0
1,000
2,000
0
10
20
30
-150
-100
-50
0
-30
-20
-10
0
2010
∑ EUR 383 bn
∑ CO e 1,090 Mton
∑ EUR 167 bn
2
cumulated
cumulated
cumulated
95
+1,687
g/km
2020
2030
EUR/ton CO e 198
EUR 216 bn net costs (EUR 383 bn powertrain costs - EUR 167 bn fuel savings) from 2010 to 2030
2
=
GHG abatement costs
CO e 1,090 Mton avoided GHG emissions from 2010 to 2030
2
Source: Roland Berger
4. Additional potential for GHG abatement: 2030 and beyond
For passenger cars to deliver further reduction of GHG emissions until 2030 by, it is cost-efficient
for society to promote
1.
Uptake of higher advanced ethanol blends, such as E10, E20 for gasoline,
2.
Uptake of drop-in advanced and waste based biofuels for diesel such as R332 and co-
processing of renewable feedstock in refinery units and
2 Diesel fuel with 7% FAME and 26% HVO
7
STUDY
Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
3.
Uptake ultra-high efficient hybridized powertrains, such as mild hybrids and full hybrids
as these technologies are not yet fully capitalizing full GHG emission reduction potential in terms of
deployment under the current regulatory framework.
Figure 5: WTW GHG abatement costs pathways, C-segment PCs 2030 [EUR/ton CO2e]
Abatement costs1) [EUR/ton CO e]
2
800
Gasoline
Gasoline
Gasoline
BEV
CNG
FCV
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
Diesel
blending
hybridization
PHEV
drop-in
hybridization
PHEV
700
600
Performance
oriented
implementation
500
Performance
oriented
400
implementation
300
200
100
0
-100
5
2)
2)
4)
4)
3)
7
7
7
7
PT
10
20
85
5
E
5
ix
ix
ix
5)6)
B
B
B
E
E
E
B
Fuel
H
E
E
-m
D
-m
33
H
H
-m
V
M
H
V
F
E
U
U
U
R
F
E
2 50/50
M
H
E
E
D
D
H
E
D
H
P
R
P
G
V
D
S
LR
C
Recommended until 2030
V
V
F
@70 USD/bbl
E
E
bf N
B
B
G
Not cost efficient until 2030
@113 USD/bbl
N
C
1) Compared to optimized Gasoline powertrain 2030 using E5, al technologies with 250,000 km lifetime mileage 2) 30% e-driving, higher e-driving share reduces abatement costs
3) Large range between scenarios driven by decoupling effect of natural gas price 4) Risk of higher abatement costs due to need of second battery over lifetime,
SR – short range with 35 kWh battery capacity, LR – long range with 65 kWh battery capacity, both using 2030 EU mix electricity, 5) Diesel fuel with 7% FAME and 26% HVO
6) Abatement cost in existing vehicle: -67 EUR/ton CO (high oil price), 7 EUR/ton CO (low oil price)
2
2
Source: Roland Berger
In commercial vehicle segments Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV), Medium Duty Trucks (MDT) and
Heavy Duty Trucks (HDT), additional cost-efficient GHG abatement is possible through
> Higher uptake of drop-in advanced biofuels for diesel
> New HD truck concepts with increased gross vehicle weight and higher maximal length for
improved aerodynamics with even negative abatement cost.
Alternative powertrain (e.g. BEV, PHEV) measures in these segments are very costly to 2030 due
to high adaptation and integration cost.
8
STUDY
Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
Figure 6: WTW GHG abatement costs pathways of medium- and heavy duty vehicle 2030 [EUR/ton CO2e]
Abatement costs [EUR/ton CO e]
2
1,600
Diesel
Mild Hybrid
BEV3)
CNG4)
LNG
Fuel Cell5)
Increased
Increased
1,400
biofuel
vehicle
size7)
1,200
length6)
>1,330
>1,550
>2,580
1,000
EUR/ton CO e
EUR/ton CO e
EUR/ton CO e
2
2
2
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
HVO Drop-
HVO100
MD MH
HD MH
MD BEV
MD CNG
HD CNG
HD LNG
HD FCV
HD
HD
in (R33)
Recommended until 2030
@70 USD/bbl
Not cost efficient until 2030
@113 USD/bbl
1) Medium duty 2) Heavy duty 3) Exclusion of HD BEV due to incompatibility of BEV range with long haul requirements 4) High CO abatement costs for CNG and LNG within
2
MD/HD/City Bus s result from low quantities of vehicles (missing economies of scale) and CO abatement potential compared to Diesel is smal (<5% savings/km) 5) High system cost
2
and low lifetime mileage in medium duty trucks causes very high abatement cost , therefore incompatibility 6) Increased efficiency due to aerodynamic measures to reduce drag
7) Length and gross vehicle weight increase, increased transport efficiency by 10%
Source: Roland Berger
The identified cost-efficient abatement technologies in passenger cars and commercial vehicles
allow approximately 34 Mton CO2e/a of additional WTW GHG emission reductions down to 828
Mton CO2e/a in 2030.
As a longer-term requirement (
beyond 2030) for the EU road transport sector, the only
combinations of fuel and vehicle pathway technologies that are technically able to realize "ultra-low
carbon mobility" are
> Highly-efficient conventional powertrains fuelled with advanced and waste based biofuels
> PHEVs fuelled with advanced biofuels and renewable or carbon free electricity
> BEVs fuelled with renewable or carbon free electricity
> FCVs fuelled with renewable hydrogen
These vehicle and fuel technology combinations would allow average vehicle CO2 emissions of the
fleet to come down to below 40 gCO2/km, which could lead to overall fleet GHG emission reductions
below the expected level for 2050 (60% reduction compared to 1990 as defined in in the EC White
Paper 2011).
9
STUDY
Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
Figure 7: WTW GHG efficiencies by technology1), average C-segment vehicle 2030 [g/km]
140
For ultra-low-carbon mobility beyond 2030, technologies with average
TTW GHG emissions below ~40 g/km are required in EU fleet
120
100
80
Renewable fuels
counted zero on
TTW side
60
✓
✓
✓
✓
40
Zero emission
possible if green
20
electricity is used
for H2 conditioning
0
Gasoline
Diesel
PHEV2)
FH
ICE with
BEV
BEV
SNG3)
CNG
FCV
FCV
(fossil)
(fossil)
(fossil)
renewable
(2030
(green
(EU-mix)
(H2 50/50 (H2 wind
fuels
EU-mix)
electricity)
mix)
electrolysis)
Conventional ICE
✓ = Potential vehicle/fuel combination for low-carbon economy
In al technologies significant vehicle efficiency improvements are included
Wel -to-tank
Tank-to-wheel
Al owed average vehicle CO emission in fleet in 2050 for compliance with reference emissions
2
1) Biofuel adjusted 2) With 30% electric driving 3) If NG is produced via power-to-gas from renewable electricity TTW = 0
Source: Roland Berger
5. Policy recommendation
The current regulatory framework does not fully address all the barriers preventing a higher
penetration of biofuels and hybrids for passenger cars to achieve the 2030 GHG reduction target. It
is recommended that additional policies are introduced to provide greater investor certainty and
improve consumer demand for these lower cost abatement options.
In many commercial vehicles the implementation of efficiency technology in powertrains is driven by
Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) – Only in LCVs, the implementation of fuel-saving measures
segment is supported by the current regulations. But, at vehicle level, an adaption of the regulatory
framework on current vehicle length and weight limitation is necessary.
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Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
Figure 8: Key obstacles cost-efficient abatement options
Fuel with high
MHs and FHs for
Highly efficient
advanced biofuel share
passenger vehicle
truck concepts
Remaining uncertainty regarding
High purchasing cost1) for
sustainable demand (price and
customers and lack of
TCO
volume)
benefits
Cost competitiveness vs.
conventional fuels (in al scenarios)
Technology hurdles for advanced
generation
Uncertain
vehicle
Regulatory limitation of
vehicle
compatibility/lack of fuel
length and weight
standards
Lack of customer
technology
Lack of customer
technology
awareness and knowledge
awareness and knowledge
1) incl. other registration cost (e.g. purchasing taxes)
Source: Roland Berger
Until 2030, in addition to continuation of current policies for fuels and vehicles new demand- and
supply-side policy measures are needed at EU and member state level to address the obstacles
preventing further market penetration of low abatement cost options and to enable these
technologies (e.g. biofuels and hybrids). This integrated approach aims to:
> Create a long-term sustainable market (demand-side) to
– Encourage consumers to buy carbon-saving vehicle technologies
– Incentivize fuel customers to choose low carbon fuels by providing a strong price signal either
via a tax exemption of biofuel content in market fuels in combination with an additional CO2
based taxation component or via a fuel taxation bonus depending on the biofuel content in
combination with an additional CO2 based taxation component
– Improve customers awareness about technological benefits of efficient powertrains and cost-
attractiveness
> Create planning security for investments by fuel suppliers and OEMs (supply-side) to
– Enable the development of advanced biofuel production by providing a strong and sustained
price signal for the product through tax exemptions or bonus/malus systems as for incentivise
consumer demand
– Support the use of the Innovation Fund for investments in innovations in low carbon
technologies. The Innovation Fund should be used to fund capex and opex for initial
advanced biofuel plants (fuel supplier/biofuel suppliers)
– Increase the production of cost-efficient vehicles as well as highly efficient conventional
technologies and fuel compatibility of vehicles (OEMs)
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Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
Figure 9: Overview of key obstacles of pathway technologies: high biofuels share fuels, MHs/FHs and new truck concepts
Fuel with high
MHs/FHs power-
Highly
biofuel share
trains for PC
efficient trucks
Existing supportive policies at fuel supply side (e.g. transport RED targets, provision within DAFI/AFID) and vehicle side
kept unaltered
Additional
> Introduce
additional fuel taxation components
>
Change existing vehicle taxation
financial
enabling a price advantage for fuels with high
towards a CO based taxation, e.g.
2
instruments
advanced biofuel share, e.g.
– CO based vehicle registration tax
2
– Biofuel bonus/malus + CO component
2
– CO based annual vehicle tax
2
– Biofuel tax exemption + CO component
2
– CO based vehicle usage tax
2
> Support the use the Innovation Fund for invest-
ments in innovations in low carbon technologies
Additional
> Set
tailpipe emission to zero for the renewable
> Adjustments in truck
length and
regulation/
part of the fuel that the vehicle is compatible with,
weight regulation
liabilities
above 2020 levels – define reference fuels
accordingly
Additional
> Introduce
CO labeling for fuels
> Introduce
cost/TCO labeling for vehicles
2
other policies
> Offer/support "
customer education" for biofuels
> Make fuel
taxation transparent to customer (e.g.
at gas station)
Taxation as powerful financial instrument is in responsibility of member states, additional regulation and liabilities can be introduced on EU level
Source: Roland Berger
Policy recommendations beyond 2030
In line with the long-term EU vision of a low-carbon society, it is further necessary to develop
instruments that drive progress towards cost-effective ultra-low-carbon mobility. It is recommended
that policy makers consider placing fuels in a market based mechanism (MBM) as complementary
policy to vehicle emission standards, fuels and infrastructure policies. Initially, the MBM should be
designed to recycle the revenues from the sale of allowances for fuels to provide the funding
needed to bring new low carbon fuels and vehicles to market. Once low carbon fuels and vehicles
can be deployed affordably en masse, the MBM can be the primary GHG reduction policy and other
policies (vehicle efficiency, fuels etc.) can be removed.
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STUDY
Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
Figure 10: Market-based mechanisms as future policies for long-term GHG emission reduction
Source: European Commission, ZEW, ICCT, IW Köln, Roland Berger
To achieve the target of a cost-effective and transparent reduction in GHG emissions, the following
design principles of a market based mechanism are recommended:
> Fuel suppliers should be the obligated party
> All emissions allowances need to be purchased via government auction and can be traded
> Only CO2 emissions from the combustion of fuels should be included in the cap and should be
calculated based on average TTW emissions (CO2/unit volume for gasoline and diesel)
> Biofuels should be accounted for as zero CO2 TTW emissions for the part that the vehicle is
compatible with above 2020 levels and only those that meet agreed sustainability criteria should
be allowed for compliance
> Funds from auctioning allowances for fuels should be used to provide time limited support for
both the additional policies for advanced biofuels, hybrids or ultralow carbon technologies as well
as R&D into these technologies
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STUDY
Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
6. Summary Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
>
On the basis of a detailed EU28 road fleet model developed by Roland Berger it appears
that by extending
existing policy measures to 2030, the road transport sector can reduce
TTW emissions by
~29% to 2030 (vs. 2005) reaching almost the 2030 aspiration – Compared
to today, 2030 WTW GHG emissions should reduce by 238 Mton, thereof 191 Mton reduction
are direct emissions
>
Abating ~1,100 Mton CO2 emissions cumulative in passenger cars from 2010 to 2030 reflects
cost to society of an estimated
~200 EUR/ton CO2e this includes significant cost incurred by
vehicle manufactures and fuel suppliers
>
Identified cost-efficient abatement
pathways (fuels with higher biofuel shares, hybridization in
passenger cars and highly efficient truck concepts) would allow
additional GHG abatement of
approximately
34 Mton CO2e until 2030. This reflects an annual emission saving forecast in
2030, which will further reduce post-2030 with the deployment of these technologies in the fleet
>
Additional policies are needed to address obstacles
to the deployment of low-carbon
pathway technologies such as
–
supporting development of advanced
biofuels via price signal to the biofuel/fuel industry
–
an
adjusted fuel and vehicle taxation (e.g. excise duty exemption or taxation
bonus/malus on advanced bio-components in fuels in combination with a CO2 based
taxation component)
–
adjusted regulations regarding
biofuel's TTW emissions (set tailpipe emission to zero
for the renewable part of the fuel that the vehicle is compatible with above 2020 levels and
to define reference fuels accordingly) to accelerate the penetration of vehicles that are
compatible with higher concentrations of biofuels
–
adjusted regulations of
truck length and weight limits to improve aerodynamic efficiency
and transport efficiency by increased payload levels
–
making low-carbon technology benefits more
transparent to the customer
>
In the long term,
market-based mechanisms (MBM) are an option as complementary policy
to vehicle CO2 standards, which would provide
Member States with funds to support new
ultra-low-carbon vehicle and fuel technologies – In the
long term MBM can become
primary GHG reduction policy
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Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
Publisher
Roland Berger GmbH
Sederanger 1
80538 Munich
Germany
+49 89 9230-0
www.rolandberger.com
Photo credits
Cover: Fotolia
Disclaimer
This study has been prepared for general guidance only. The reader should not act on any
information provided in this study without receiving specific professional advice.
Roland Berger GmbH shall not be liable for any damages resulting from the use of information
contained in the study.
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STUDY
Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+
ement summary
EU28 targets a 80-95% reduction of total GHG until 2050 vs. 1990 levels
Transport sector is required to reduce
- 30% until 2030 vs. 2005 levels (non ETS from ESD)
- 60% until 2050 vs. 1990 levels (Transport White Paper)
With >270 m vehicles in car parc in 2030/2050 and the CO2 reduction limits of ICE,
today's dominant ICE needs to be replaced by carbon-friendlier technologies
The market on its own will achieve 25% reduction until 2030 vs. 2005 levels, falling
about 5% short of the non-ETS sector target (both in low- and high-oil price
scenarios)
Cost-efficient CO2-friendly technologies for 2030
- Mild- and Full-Hybrids can contribute
- Biofuels can contribute
- CNG can contribute
But to achieve 2050 targets, these technologies are not enough
Only BEV and FCEV have the potential to achieve near-zero WTW emissions
Technologies for 2050
- Infrastructure build-up required today
- BEV short-medium range
- FCEV medium-long range
- LNG for HD