Ref. Ares(2018)6194364 - 03/12/2018
GAS INDEPENDENCE IN FRANCE IN 2050
A 100%renewable gas mix in 2050?
S T U D Y S U M M A R Y
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The study was initiated by ADEME and GRDF; it was jointly managed
by ADEME, GRDF and GRTgaz, and coordinated by ADEME: Guillain
Chapelon (GRDF), Emmanuel Combet (ADEME), David Marchal (ADEME),
Laurent Meunier (ADEME), Ony Rabetsimamanga (GRDF), Alban Thomas
(GRTgaz), Anne Varet (ADEME), Isabelle Vincent (ADEME)
Study completion was entrusted to a consortium comprising
SOLAGRO and AEC and coordinated by SOLAGRO:
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Florian Coupé (AEC conseil), Christian Couturier (SOLAGRO),
Simon Métivier (SOLAGRO)
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or contributed to the work: Loïc Antoine (ADEME), Marc Bardinal
(ADEME), Guillaume Bastide (ADEME), Luc Bodineau (ADEME), Valérie
Bosso (GRDF), David Canal (ADEME), Alice Chiche (ARTELYS), Aicha El
Khamlichi (ADEME), Sylvain Frédéric (GRDF), Bruno Gagnepain (ADEME),
Catherine Leboul-Proust (GRDF), Stéphanie Legrand (GRDF), Philippe
Madiec (GRTgaz), Arnaud Mainsant (ADEME), Sabra Meradi (GRTgaz),
William Monin (GRDF), Jean-Michel Parrouffe (ADEME), Jean-Christophe
Pouet (ADEME), Bertrand de Singly (GRDF), Olivier Théobald (ADEME), Éric
Vidalenc (ADEME)
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A 100% RENEWABLE GAS MIX IN 2050?
STUDY SUMMARY
EDITORIAL
The fight against climate change, according to the ambitions adopted by the
Paris agreement, relies on the success of the energy transition. France has made
commitments to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions on world-wide, European
and national levels. France Climate Plan, initiated in July 2017 by Nicolas Hulot,
France’s Minister of the Ecological and Inclusive Transition, re-affirmed the
proactive strategy for the energy transition with ambitious objectives, such as
achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
ADEME has been contributing since 2013
Aside from observing that there is a theoretical
through regular publications of energy-
potential source of renewable gas that could
climate scenarios. To update these scenarios
exceed the level of demand proposed for
and broaden the scope of discussions,
2050 by ADEME's 2035-2050 energy-climate
more exploratory prospective studies are
scenario, a number of conditions to achieve
carried out to assess options with more
100% renewable gas by 2050 have also
open hypotheses on certain specific vectors
been identified. Although these ambitious
© J. Chiscano
or industries. The purpose is to identify
results encourage immediate, accelerated
possibilities, not to propose a public policy
deployment of agricultural anaerobic
scenario. This then enables all those involved
digestion projects, they also highlight the
to reconsider these options and to redefine
importance of optimising the use of biomass
their perception of the future to build shared
sources by improving the balance between
visions of tomorrow.
the different energy vectors (heat, electricity
This study about a 100% renewable gas mix by
or gas). This confirms that to improve the
2050 follows several publications released in
sustainability of our energy system, we must
2016 and 2017 with regards to the evolution of
strengthen the interactions between the
the energy mix, and is focussed on the second
energy vectors and optimise their synergies,
most consumed grid energy in France, which
at various territorial scales. These findings
is gas. ADEME, in an effective col aboration
will help to update the ADEME energy-climate
with GRDF and GRTgaz, has explored the
scenario in 2019.
technical and economic feasibility of 100%
renewable gas in 2050, based on ADEME's
Bruno LECHEVIN
2035-2050 energy-climate scenario. This
document does not provide a roadmap to
achieve 100% renewable gas by 2050; it
explores the conditions of feasibility and
obstacles of such an ambition. The results are
therefore based on sensitivity analyses and
various hypotheses regarding the renewable
gas production mix.
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
PAGE 1
CONTENTS
1. Context and objectives ..............................................................................................................................
3
2. Study process ...............................................................................................................................................................................................
4
3. Results ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
5
3.1. A theoretical potential of 460 TWh of renewable gas .................................................................
5
3.2. Gas demand from 276 to 361 TWh in 2050
could be met by renewable gas
in the four scenarios studied….............................................................................................................................................
6
3.3. … for an overall cost of 100% renewable gas
between €116 and 153/MWh… .............................................................................................................................................
8
3.4. … enabling the avoidance of direct emissions of approximately
63 MtCO2/year ........................................................................................................................................................................................................
8
4. Findings .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
9
4.1. A gas system compatible with 100% renewable gas,
with necessary evolutions..............................................................................................................................................................
9
4.2. The complementarity of the gas network with the electric grid
represents a key success factor for
a highly renewable energy mix .............................................................................................................................................
9
5. Limits and perspectives ...................................................................................................................
10
6. Method and hypotheses ..................................................................................................................
10
6.1. The gas demand scenario in 2050 ..............................................................................................................................
11
6.2. Assessment of potential renewable gas production ..............................................................
13
6.3. Assessment of grid adaptation ........................................................................................................................................
16
PAGE 2
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
1. CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES
After an initial study carried out by ADEME on
This is a prospective technical study and not a
the role of renewable electricity in the energy
political scenario.
mix – which revealed notably that a very
The energy efficiency improvements and
high level of renewable electricity could be
reduction in energy demand used in this
envisaged in technical and economic terms –
study are those indicated in the
ADEME
this study focussed on the second most
2035-2050 energy-climate scenario update (1).
consumed grid energy: the gas vector.
The total demand in 2050 for mains gas is
In this period of great importance to the
therefore around 300 TWh, compared with
energy transition, this work carried out
today’s figure, 460 TWh.
in col aboration by ADEME, GRDF and
The main goal of this study is to analyse
GRTgaz contributes to the discussions
the conditions of technical and economic
centred on France's proactive strategy
feasibility of a gas system based entirely
to reduce its CO2 emissions while
(100%) on renewable gas by 2050. It aims to
controlling its energy consumption answer the fol owing questions:
and developing renewable energies.
How much renewable or recoverable gas could be available in 2050 in mainland
France? Would this be enough to satisfy the demand for gas every day and
throughout the network?
What changes would have to be made to the networks or production industries?
What are the constraints and what technical flexibility is available?
What would be the impact on the average cost of gas delivered?
Study scope:
• The study is centred on mainland France: the
• This study does not identify the roadmap
resources are national and the possibilities
from now until 2050;
of importing renewable gas are not included;
• This study does not aim to optimise the
• The study concentrates on mains gas: it does
overall energy system (all vectors, all
not look into all the potentials for usage
usages).
increase outside the renewable gas network
(e.g.: biogas co-generation) or via third
party infrastructures (e.g.: decentralised
hydrogen production/consumption or
dedicated network) (2);
(1) http://www.ademe.fr/actualisation-scenario-energie-climat-ademe-2035-2050. Hereinafter, this document will be referred to as "ADEME's
2035-2050 energy-climate scenario".
(2) However, it does not exclude the possibility of a certain proportion of direct injection of hydrogen into the gas networks.
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
PAGE 3
2. STUDY PROCESS
The study was implemented as fol ows
(see figure 1 and details in paragraph 6 -
Methods and hypotheses)
1- The theoretical potentials of available
3- Four scenarios were defined to assess
renewable resources corresponding to
different hypotheses, particularly with
three production sectors were assessed:
respect to the resources:
•
"100% R&REn" (Renewable and
ANAEROBIC
Production of methane
Recovered Energies): biomass and
DIGESTION
using micro-organisms that
resource usages are similar to ADEME's
break down organic matter
2035-2050 scenario, substituting some of
the wood and heat co-generation usages
Production of methane
with gas;
PYRO-
from organic matter,
•
"100% R&REn with high
GASIFICATION
mainly wood, via a thermo-
chemical process
pyrogasification": the same as 100%
R&REn, but gas usage is enhanced, by
increasing the production of renewable
Production of methane by
gas by pyrogasification using wood
electrolysing water using
renewable electricity and
resources made available by the
POWER-TO-GAS
then methanation of the
lesser development of wood-fired co-
hydrogen produced in the
generation and wood for heat networks.
presence of carbon dioxide
This scenario corresponds to a higher
demand for gas;
These production sectors are described in
•
"100% R&REn with limited biomass
paragraph 6.2.1.
for gas usages": the same as 100%
This assessment of the potential of
R&REn but with biomass resources
available resources takes into account
limited to 80% of their potential. The
durability criteria (3).
objective is to assess the impact of
2- Starting from the slightly adjusted
resource mobilisation difficulties (e.g.
demand of ADEME's 2035-2050 scenario,
under-estimated environmental impacts
the production mix was estimated,
or social acceptability, etc.) and/or
mobilising the production sectors in
development difficulties of the less
increasing order of cost, while including the
mature sectors;
necessary adaptation of the gas network.
•
"75% R&REn": biomass and resource
usages are similar to ADEME's 2035-2050
scenario, natural gas represents 25% of
final energy consumption.
FIGURE 1: STUDY METHODOLOGY
Description of the resource
Prospective
potential per input
framework of ADEME
(2017 update)
Gas demand
• Geographic distribution
• Procurement costs
Balance of
• Transformation costs
supply/
ACTUALISATION DU SCÉNARIO ÉNERGIE-CLIMAT
demand
ADEME 2035-2050
over one year
Mobilisation in
increasing order of cost
Demand
that is
Four GAS 2050 scenarios
(3) In particular, specific energy
localised
depending on:
in space and
TOTAL
crops are excluded and
time
Assessment of
the resources used are
• Resource usage arbitration
COST
network +
not in competition with
• Resource limitation / sector
storage costs
OF THE GAS
"raw material' usages
• % R&REn in the gas mix
SYSTEM
(agriculture, forest, wood
industry and biomaterials).
PAGE 4
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
3. RESULTS
3.1. A theoretical potential of 460 TWh of renewable gas
FIGURE 2: RESOURCE
700 AVAILABILITY AND POTENTIAL PRODUCTION
Power-to-gas (b)
TWh
600
'By-product' hydrogen
Solid Recovered Fuels (a)
Wood waste (a)
500
olysis
Electricity
thanation
Electr
Non-forest wood (a)
me
Sawmill / black liquor related (a)
400
Recovery
olysis
thanation
Wood from forests (a)
Electr me
Crop residues
300
ation
Intermediary crops
asific
ation
og
Grass
200
Pyr
asific
og
Farm animal dejections
Biomass
Pyr
Food-processing industry residues
100
Biowaste
Seaweed
Energy in HCV, except (a) in LCV and (b) electricity.
{obic obic estionestionAnaerdigAnaerdig
0
input type
resource
sector
Primary
type
resources
Injectable
available
Primary resources
gas
in 2010
available in 2050
2050
The total potential of renewable implies new practices and organisations for
primary resources liable to produce gas
agriculture and forests. Biomass resources
is approximately 620 TWh. It is not in
represent almost 390 TWh, 230 TWh of which
competition with "raw material" (agriculture,
come from wood and its derivatives, 130 TWh
forest, wood industry and biomaterials) and
from agriculture, 15 TWh from biowaste and
food usages, which remain priority.
food-processing industries and 14 TWh from
This is available potential before any
seaweed. Electricity contributes 205 TWh.
al ocation to competing energy usages (e.g.
Recovered energies represent a little under
energy wood can be used in a boiler), and
25 TWh.
it incorporates durability criteria (specific
Taking into account conversion efficiency,
the
energy crops are therefore excluded) (4).
theoretical potential of primary resources
Compared with the resources currently
identified could produce up to 460 TWhHCV
(2010) mobilised for energy production and
of injectable renewable gas:
potential y convertible into gas, the 2050
• 30% could be supplied by the mature
estimated potential is much higher, which
anaerobic digestion industrial sector,
(4) Although currently permitted to a level of 15% in tonnage.
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
PAGE 5
enabling the conversion of agricultural
• 30% could be provided by power-to-gas in
inputs, biowaste and seaweed residues to
the context of a 100% renewable electric
produce up to 140 TWhHCV of gas (5)(6);
mix to maximise the production of synthetic
•
40% could be supplied by the
gas, i.e. 140 TWhHCV of gas (8).
pyrogasification sector from wood and its
derivatives, Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) and
a low proportion of agricultural residues,
to produce up to 180 TWhHCV of gas (7);
3.2. Gas demand from 276 to 361 TWh in 2050 could be met by
renewable gas in the four scenarios studied…
Bearing in mind other usages of biomass,
for the injection sectors depends upon the
the potential of 460 TWhHCV of injectable
level of mobilisation of the other usages (direct
renewable gas is enough to meet the demand
usage or co-generation). The production mix
for gas in 2050 for a scenario similar to
was defined after adjustment of demand for
ADEME's energy-climate scenario ("100%
each scenario and the available resources
R&REn" with a demand of 293 TWh) but also a
(see figure 4); the resources were mobilised
scenario in which the demand for gas is higher
in increasing order of cost (see figure 11): the
("100% R&REn" with high pyrogasification"
anaerobic digestion and pyrogasification
with a demand of 361 TWh).
sectors were thus mobilised to their
The adjusted demand (see figure 4) for each
maximum limit; power-to-gas, which is the
scenario takes into account different effects,
most expensive, is the adjustment variable to
such as arbitrations on usages of anaerobic
balance supply and demand (described in the
digestion and wood. The available resource
Results section, paragraph 6.4).
FIGURE 3: RENEWABLE GAS MIX IN THE FOUR SCENARIOS
100% R&REn
128
65 9
90
293 TWh
100% R&REn
with high pyrogasification
128
138
9
85
361 TWh
100% R&REn with limited
Anaerobic digestion
biomass for gas usage
100
31
135
276 TWh
9
Pyrogasification-wood
Pyrogasification-RDF
75% R&REn
128
67
34
79
317 TWh
Power-to-gas
9
TWh
Natural gas
0
100
200
300
400
PCS
(5) For crop residues and particularly straw, anaerobic digestion was preferred over pyrogasification because it enables stable carbon and
nutrients (including nitrogen) to be returned to the soil.
(6) 94% efficiency determined by injectable methane (HCV) / biogas produced (HCV).
(7) 70% efficiency determined by injectable methane (HCV) / input (LCV).
(8) 66% efficiency determined by injectable methane (HCV) / electricity consumed.
PAGE 6
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
FIGURE 4: ADJUSTMENT OF DEMAND AND BIOMASS RESOURCE USAGE SCENARIOS
250250
ect
eff
47
to
the
ations
47
250
93
200
95
ding
93
200
)
45
95
and cor
47
V
45
250
cation-
ac
LC
93
95
150
ifi
200
n
2.3.),
197
ces
e arbitr
47
150
45
t
gas
sed
197
ctio
(TWh
9363
63
63
63
63
200
95
ea
-generation
ot u
63
150
resour
197
45
100
H
Co
Pyro inje
N
100
63
63
63
150
description,
77
197
50
79
75
100
Wood usag
50
biomass
6377
63
35
79
6375
enario of
35
1000
sc
77
79
75
0
wn
50
(see do
35
50
eak
77
79
75
ces
0
br
35
0
resour the
e
ws
)
200200
sho
HCV
biomass
200
e
of e also
150
30
150
use figur
estion usag
30
200
sag
n
sed
the
150
30
-generation
ctio
This
ot u
on
ations (TWh
100
137
137
137
6.1.).
137
137
137
150100
Direct u
Co
Inje
N
obic dig
30
ations
106106
100
thod,
arbitr
137
137
137
5050
arbitr me
Anaer
106
100
8 137 7
8 137 7
8
7
8 137 7
50
8
7
8
7
8
7
106
8
7
00
various
50
the adjustment
8
7
8
7
8
7
8
7
0
) HCV
8
7
8
7
8
7
8
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as
0
demand
293
361
276
317
293
361
276
317
considering (see
ed g
293
361
276
317
-to-gas
er
Adjust
293
361
276
317
adjustments, w
demand (TWh
+ 75
120
po
+ 75
120
and
demand
)
+ 75
9012090
gas ation
HCV
+ 75
120
the
+ 32+ 32
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+ 7
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+ 7
+ 32
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- 10
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- 10
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00
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NB: F on ener
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with high asific
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ation
asific
ed
e
100% R&REn100% R&REn
with high og
100% R&REn with limit biomass for g
75% R&REn
100% R&REn
as usag
75% R&REn
100% R&REn
ation og
100% R&REn with limit
for g
100% R&REn
pyrasific
75% R&REn
100% R&REn
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100% R&REn with limit biomass as usag
with high
for g
100% R&REn
asific
ogpyr
100% R&REn with limit
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75% R&REn
100% R&REn
pyr
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
PAGE 7
3.3. … for an overall cost of 100% renewable gas
between €116 and €153/MWh
The total cost of gas consumed per MWh,
gas usages in the "100% R&REn with high
i.e. the sum of production costs (9) and
pyrogasification" scenario does not result in
network and storage costs, varies from
significant cost differences. This is due to the
€105 (for the "75% R&REn" scenario) to
greater use of the pyrogasification sector, in
€153 per MWh (for the "100%R&REn with
which production costs are lower than for
limited biomass for gas usages" scenario) –
power-to-gas.
see figure 5. These costs are similar to the
The "100% R&REn with limited biomass
€120-130/MWh calculated for electricity in
for gas usages" scenario also enables
the study
"A 100% renewable electricity mix?
100% renewable gas, but at a higher cost,
Analyses and optimisations"(2015) (10).
approximately 15% more than the "100%
Network and storage costs only represent a
R&REn" scenario. This extra cost is due to
small proportion: 15-20% of total cost (€20-
increased use of power-to-gas to compensate
23/MWh).
In particular, the sole cost of
for the lesser use of biomass sectors for
connection, including limited distribution
anaerobic digestion and pyrogasification
network reinforcement needs and reverse
usages (limited to 80% of potential).
flow stations, represent approximately
Finally, the "75% R&REn" scenario,
€3/MWh.
which keeps 25% natural gas in its mix,
Although demand for gas is 23% higher
costs 10-20% less, while applying a carbon
than in the "100% R&REn" scenario, greater
tax of €200/tCO2 in 2050 (11).
mobilisation of the biomass resources for
FIGURE 5: TOTAL COST PER MWh OF GAS CONSUMED
Historic network +
100% R&REn
€118-132/MWh
storage
Connection
100% R&REn with high
and adaptation for
renewable gas
pyrogasification
€116-127/MWh
Natural gas
100% R&REn with
R&REn gas 1*
limited biomass for
€133-
gas usage
153/MWh
R&REn gas 2*
75% R&REn
€105-111/MWh
* For each scenario, the two
production cost variants (1 and 2)
are differentiated by the electricity
€/MWh
cost hypotheses used (see Cost
0
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
assessment method, 6.4.).
3.4. … enabling the avoidance of direct emissions
of approximately 63 MtCO2/year
These 100% renewable scenarios would
in 2050. The avoided emissions would
enable direct emissions of approximately
represent around 45 MtCO2/year for the 75%
63 MtCO2/year (12) to be avoided, R&REn scenario.
representing €12.6 billion for a shadow
This estimation does not include possible
value of carbon of €200/tonne of CO2
modifications of the carbon sink.
(9) Renewable gas production costs are described in detail in part 6.4.
(10) http://www.ademe.fr/mix-electrique-100-renouvelable-analyses-optimisations.
(11) The price of natural gas in 2050 is taken to be €42/MWhHCV , a hypothesis identical to that of the study on ADEME, ARTELYS, ARMINES-
PERSEE et ENERGIES DEMAIN, "Un mix électrique 100 % renouvelable ? Analyses et optimization" (A 100% renewable electricity mix?
Analyses and optimisation), 2015. This price estimation is provided by World Energy Outlook. The carbon tax of €200/tCO2 increases
this price by €44/MWhHCV i.e. a price of €86/MWhHCV.
(12) Emissions for a scenario in which the reference demand (286 TWh) is 100% fulfil ed by natural gas. The figure of 63 MtCO2 takes into account
a zero emission factor for biomethane. With a factor of approximately 23.4g/kWh, the estimated fal in emissions would be 56 MtCO2.
PAGE 8
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
4. FINDINGS
4.1. A gas system compatible with 100% renewable gas,
with necessary evolutions
Huge production of renewable gas wil
Regarding the evolution of the resources to
require more decentralised management of
be mobilised to achieve 100% renewable gas,
the network than at present:
changes will also be required beyond the gas
• the study reveals that it is possible to
system itself:
collect most of the resources disseminated
• in the agriculture sector, notably via the
in rural areas without massive use of road-
generalisation of intermediate crops, and
transported gas or other innovative and
anaerobic digestion as an energy and
non-mature solutions: the cost of the
agronomic tool,
col ection networks to be built represents a
• in the forestry sector and wood industry,
low proportion of the overall cost (2-3%),
via the development of sustainable,
• a number of technological solutions already
dynamic forestry (positive carbon footprint,
exist to make the gas network bidirectional
preservation of biodiversity) respectful of
(reverse flow, meshing), the anticipation and
the hierarchy of usages (material wood, then
optimisation of their deployment will enable
energy wood).
costs to be control ed,
•
transport and storage infrastructures
continue to represent key elements to
ensure the balance between supply and
demand, notably during cold spel s.
4.2. The complementarity of the gas network with the electric
grid represents a key success factor for a highly renewable
energy mix
This study supports the fact that at a high
of the gas network. It will also provide an
level of renewable energy production, the
additional source of renewable gas for the
gas and electric systems will interact strongly
gas vector (34-135 TWhHCV).
and evolve together:
• Renewable gas will help to balance the
•
Power-to-gas will enable inter-seasonal
highly renewable electric system with
storage of electricity and geographic
peaking thermal power plants supplied by
optimisation of the electric system via
renewable gas (10-46 TWhHCV depending on
the transport and storage infrastructures
the scenarios).
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
PAGE 9
5. LIMITS AND PERSPECTIVES
• This study is not an overall optimisation
• The study does not assess a certain number
of the energy system; it does not indicate
of external elements. For example, in al
the optimal proportion of renewable gas
the scenarios, the mass development of
in technical and economic terms based
renewable gas helps to strengthen France's
on defined climatic or environmental
energy independence and has a positive
objectives. Final consumption figures in
effect on the French economy as a whole, in
usages and annual volumes are input data
terms of trade balance (at present, almost
for the study, taken from ADEME's 2035-
all gas is imported, represented a total
2050 energy-climate scenario. The macro-
of approximately €10 bil ion per year (13)),
economic balance will be carried out
economic activity, CO2 emissions avoided.
subsequently by ADEME in 2019.
It could foster job creations with the
• The study does not model the time line of
deployment of around 10,000 production
the transition between the current situation
units. These externalities were not
and the scenarios presented.
quantified in the study.
• The hypotheses considered to define
• Other scenarios could be envisaged, with
the potentials of the various resources,
different arbitrations on the biomass or gas
particularly those of biomass, include
usages in 2050. For example, these scenarios
uncertainties (changes to agriculture
could explore the optimal vector breakdown
and forest systems, social acceptability
to meet final demand or explore other
of projects, environmental review of the
usages with higher added value to reduce
industrial sectors, etc.) the assessment of
CO2 emissions in other sectors (industry,
which must be continued.
transport, etc.).
6. METHOD AND HYPOTHESES
The study considers a single scenario for the final demand for gas in 2050 and explores a number
of gas supply scenarios.
FIGURE 6: STUDY METHODOLOGY
Description of the resource
Prospective
potential per input
framework of ADEME
(2017 update)
Gas demand
• Geographic distribution
• Procurement costs
Balance of
• Transformation costs
supply/
ACTUALISATION DU SCÉNARIO ÉNERGIE-CLIMAT
demand
ADEME 2035-2050
over one year
Mobilisation
in increasing order of cost
Demand
that is
Four GAS 2050 scenarios
localised
depending on:
in space and
TOTAL
time
Assessment of
• Resource usage arbitration
COST
network +
• Resource limitation / sector
storage costs
OF THE GAS
• % R&REn in the gas mix
SYSTEM
(13) "Bilan énergétique de la France pour 2015" (Energy review for France for 2015), November 2016, SOeS.
PAGE 10
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
The study is based on four major phases, as
•
Balancing of supply/demand and network
indicated in figure 6:
adaptations required: this is carried
•
Adjustment of demand in 2050: annual
out at department scale using the data
demand defined on the basis of ADEME's
described above and a vision of the current
2035-2050 scenario (2017) is adjusted for the
network instal ation (see description of
four scenarios. It is broken down to the level
paragraph 6.3.). Connection and network
of the town and with daily load graphs.
adaptation costs are evaluated, as are
•
Characterisation of the renewable gas
storage requirements.
offer in 2050: the offer is based on already
•
Study of 4 scenarios defining 4 offer
existing scenarios regarding the different
variants. They enable the evaluation of
potentials. It is then broken down to the
different effects: greater or lesser al ocation
level of the department, even canton.
of the biomass resource to the production
The evolution of production costs in the
of gas (competition between energy
various production sectors, according to the
vectors, underestimated constraints, etc.),
mobilised resource, is evaluated.
preservation of a proportion of natural gas
in the gas mix.
6.1. The gas demand scenario in 2050
The prospective framework 2050 is based on ADEME's 2035-2050 energy-climate scenario,
updated in 2017, which describes the final annual demand for energy for each sector, usage and
energy vector.
SUMMARY OF ADEME'S 2035-2050 ENERGY-CLIMATE SCENARIO
Final demand for energy in TWh
2010
2035
2050
1,733
- 29%
1,221
953
- 45%
The percentages indicate the fall in final demand for energy compared with 2010:
2035
2050
Share of renewable energy in final demand (according to 3 offer variants)
2010
2035
2050
10%
34%
46%
-
-
41%
69%
Renewable energies
Conventional energies
The percentages indicate the variation in the proportion of renewable sources in the energy mix (according to the 3 variants)
GG emissions in millions of tons of CO2 eq. (CO2, CH4, N20)
1990
2035
2050
529
- 51%
260 - 70% - 72% 158-146
The percentages indicate the fall in CO2 emissions compared with 1990:
2035
2050
READING: The 2017 energy-climate scenario covers all energy consumption in mainland France (excluding
consumption by international air traffic). It describes the development of renewable energy sources and
technologies. The proportion of renewable energy evolves according to three variants of the electric mix.
The same therefore applies to greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4 and N2O).
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
PAGE 11
The prospective framework is based on a
on the electric system linked to the "gas"
proactive scenario aimed at energy efficiency
scenario. In this exercise, the electric
and optimisation, with an overall volumes
system is determined by the level of
reduction in 2050 of almost 35% compared
power-to-gas used. The combustion
with 2015.
turbine (CT) requirement is lower in
The 2035-2050 energy-climate scenario thus
the scenarios in which power-to-gas is
served as a basis to determine the level and
developed (15).
composition of the final demand for gas in
2. Demand decrease due to:
2050 (see table 1), and the use of energy
• pyrogasification
and
power-to-gas
resources excluding gas usages (e.g.: wood
conversion technologies co-produce
for boilers).
heat, which can partial y replace "gas"
heat (16),
TABLE 1: EVOLUTION OF FINAL MAINS GAS CONSUMPTION
• power-to-heat (17) generates heat which
TWh
2015
2050
Evolution
can partial y replace "gas" heat. The
contribution of power-to-heat depends
Residential
150.8
49.2
-67%
on the electric system linked to the
Offices
85.3
13.2
-84%
scenario, and therefore on the level of
Industry
152.5
99.3
-35%
power-to-gas involved.
Transport
0
106.1
-
The adjusted demand values are indicated in
figure 4 -
Adjustment of demand and biomass
Agriculture
2.9
2
-30%
resource usage scenarios.
Other (14)
45.2
16.4
-64%
A model is used to describe the demand at
Total excluding power
town level, per day and according to several
generation
436.5
286.3
-34%
sets of weather data to take into account
particularly warm or particularly cold
The reference demand taken from ADEME's
years (18), and daily cold spel s. The daily load
2035-2050 energy-climate scenario is graphs for 2015 and 2050 were model ed. The
adjusted for each of the scenarios. It takes
demand for gas for electricity production,
into account different effects:
notably in winter, presents larger power
1. Demand increase related to:
demands than today (19). In 2050, there is a
•
the substitution of usages initial y
significant drop in consumption in winter due
provided by other vectors (heat, directly
to the reduced gas requirements for heating
or via co-generation),
in residential and office buildings. In summer,
• peak electricity production (combustion
energy savings are compensated by the
turbines); the quantity required depends
increase in transport usage (20).
(14) Losses, water and waste sector, internal branch consumption, co-generation, refinery sector.
(15) Additional capacity from wind farms and solar farms set up to enable higher power-to-gas production also ensure better cover of the
demand for electricity and thus reduce, to a certain extent, the use of peak production means, such as gas combustion turbines (CT), in
terms of both capacity and energy.
(16) The heat efficiency figures used are 15% for pyrogasification and 23% for power-to-gas. Only 30% of this heat is considered to be
recycled and replaces heat produced from gas.
(17) Power-to-heat is a process that consists in using electric boilers (resistance or heat pump) in addition to fuel-powered boilers or thermal
processes. These electric systems are triggered for surplus electricity production to shed load from thermal facilities.
(18) All the sectors take into account a heat-sensitive effect, except the electricity production sector, which is exogenous to the model. Global
warming was taken into account, based on the sets of data from Météo France's Aladin model
(scenario RCP 4.5), see http://www.drias-climat.fr/accompagnement/sections/175
(19) The demand for gas for electricity production depends on the scenario and the power-to-gas contribution, which determines the electric
system associated.
(20) In ADEME's 2035-2050 energy-climate scenario, gas fuel represents 48% of final energy in the transport sector.
PAGE 12
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
6.2. Assessment of potential renewable gas production
6.2.1. RENEWABLE GAS PRODUCTION CHANNELS
FIGURE 7: THE DIFFERENT PRODUCTION CHANNELS OF RENEWABLE GAS
Algaculture
Agriculture
Waste
Trees and forests
Electric
system
Industry CO2
Biodegradable
Woody matter,
matter
cellulose
Electricity
By-product
hydrogen
Anaerobic
Pyrogasification
Electrolysis
digestion
Biogas CO
CO
2
2 Syngas
Hydrogen**
Purification
Methanation
Methane
Direct usage
Local usage
Network
injection
* "Pyrogasification" includes hydrothermal pyrogasification of seaweed.
** Hydrogen can also be used directly for various usages; this is not included in this study.
Renewable gas comes from three main
•
Pyrogasification: thermo-chemical meth-
sectors:
od, in the broad sense, enabling production
•
Anaerobic digestion: biological method
of a synthetic gas, cal ed syngas, (mainly
using micro-organisms to break down organic
composed of methane, hydrogen, carbon
matter and produce a mixture cal ed biogas,
monoxide and carbon dioxide) from organic
mainly composed of methane and carbon
matter. The process can be completed by
dioxide. After purification, biomethane has
methanation or separation to produce
thermodynamic properties equivalent to
a gas whose thermodynamic properties
those of natural gas. The organic matter comes
are equivalent to those of natural gas.
from agriculture (farm animal dejections, crop
Pyrogasification mainly concerns dry
residues, intermediary crops, grass), industry
woody matter or cel ulose: wood and its
(by-products and waste from food-processing),
derivatives, straw and various woody by-
sludge from urban sewage processing plants,
products from agriculture. It may also
and household and food waste.
involve waste, typical y RDF(21).
(21) Refuse-Derived Fuel
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
PAGE 13
•
Power-to-gas (PtG): process to convert
These scenarios are "Factor 4" compatible,
renewable electricity into synthetic
i.e. they represent the agricultural and
gas. The first step involves electrolysis
forestry component of scenarios aimed
to produce hydrogen (power-to-H2). A
at dividing by four our greenhouse gas
second step can be added to convert the
emissions, in all sectors, by 2050 (the
hydrogen to methane via a methanation
greenhouse gas reduction factor for the
reaction (power-to-CH4). This reaction
agriculture sector is 2) (22):
requires a source of CO2.
•
concerning agricultural feedstock in
It should be noted that the levels of
2050, the potential used is mainly based
maturity and the production processes
on SOLAGRO'S works, presented in the
of these three main sectors are different.
Afterres 2050 (23) prospective study;
Pyrogasification
and
power-to-gas
•
concerning wood resources, forest
technologies are therefore considered
extractions are estimated on the basis
mature in 2050 with efficiency increase
of works by ADEME, IGN, FCBA (24) and
hypotheses. However, this study does not
INRA (25). The time line of these works was
take into account possible technological
2035, so the figures were extrapolated to
breakthroughs or significant economies of
2050, based on the "dynamic forestry"
scale. We also consider that the first two
scenario drawn up by Ecofor (26);
sectors ensure basic production, while
power-to-gas operates during periods of
• biowaste potential estimates are mainly
surplus electricity production, making the
from the study entitled
"Estimation
des gisements potentiels de substrats
use of power-to-gas discontinuous.
utilisables en méthanisation" (Estimation
6.2.2. MAIN HYPOTHESES TO
of the potential sources of substrates for
ASSESS FEEDSTOCK
use in anaerobic digestion)
(27). Finally,
POTENTIALS
the potential of by-products from the
food-processing industries comes from
Feedstock availability is notably dependent
the study entitled
"Étude du potentiel de
on the evolution of agricultural and
production de biométhane à partir des
forestry systems as well as energy systems
effluents des industries agroalimentaires"
(electricity and heat).
(Study of the biomethane production
Biomass potentials respect several of the
potential from food industry waste)
(28) ;
study's fundamental standpoints: non-
• seaweed is considered to be converted
competition of bioenergies with food or
to liquid fuel. Only the residues are
with raw material usage, and increased
considered for the gas sector, according to
biological life in soil. The framework data
the 2014 study by ADEME/ENEA/INRIA (29).
in terms of agriculture and forestry are
The potential for renewable electricity
based on integrated prospective scenarios
to supply power-to-gas plants comes
which take into account the diversity of
from the data of the 2017 ADEME/ARTELYS
the objectives for agriculture and forests.
study (30) evaluating various optimised
(22) However, it is estimated that it would be possible to produce at least as much resource with a 'baseline' agricultural scenario, but the
negative impacts involved would be more significant.
(23) SOLAGRO, "Afterres 2050", 2016.
(24) ADEME, IGN, FCBA, "Disponibilités forestières pour l’énergie et les matériaux à l’horizon 2035" (Forest availabilities for energy and
materials in 2035), 2016.
(25) INRA and IGN, "Quel rôle pour les forêts et la filière forêt-bois française dans l’atténuation du changement climatique ?" (How can
forests and the French forestry-wood industry help to attenuate global warming?) June 2017.
(26) Caulet, "Climat, Forêt, Société – Livre Vert" (Climate, forest, society - Green paper), 2015.
(27) ADEME, SOLAGRO and INDDIGO, "Estimation des gisements potentiels de substrats utilisables en méthanisation" (Estimation of
potential sources of substrates usable for methanation), 2013.
(28) GRDF et SOLAGRO, "Étude du potentiel de production de biométhane à partir des effluents des Industries Agro-Alimentaires" (Study of
the production potential of biomethane from food-processing industry waste), 2017.
(29) ENEA, INRIA and ADEME, "Évaluation du gisement potentiel de ressources algales pour l’énergie et la chimie en France à horizon 2030"
(Evaluation of potential seaweed resources for energy and chemistry in France in 2030), July 2014. Total conversion of seaweed into gas
enables a production potential of up to 60 TWh, with efficiency approximately half that of the diesel + gas conversion.
(30) ADEME and ARTELYS, "Un mix électrique 100 % ENR en 2050, quelles opportunités pour décarboner le système gaz et chaleur ?" (A 100%
R&REn electric mix in 2050, how to reduce the carbon footprint of the gas and heat system), 2017.
PAGE 14
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
configurations of the electric system with
The map below shows the injectable gas
power-to-gas developed to a greater or
potential per department and per sector.
lesser extent: instal ed capacity per region,
These potentials correspond to the entire
operating time profile, electricity costs.
available resource for an energy usage,
In terms of recovered gas, RDF (Refuse-
before arbitration between the energy
Derived Fuel) (31) and by-product hydrogen (32)
usages in competition.
potentials were also estimated, representing
figures significantly lower than the renewable
potentials
in the strictest sense.
FIGURE 8: BREAKDOWN OF THE THEORETICAL POTENTIAL OF INJECTABLE GAS BY DEPARTMENT
AND SECTOR IN 2050
10,000
5,000
1,000
Anaerobic digestion
Pyrogasification
Power-to-gas
(31) GRDF, GRTgaz and S3D, "Étude sur les gisements valorisables par la filière pyrogazéification phase 1 : état des lieux bibliographique et
'fiches intrants'" (Study of the sources recyclable by the phase 1 pyrogasification sector: bibliographic review and 'input datasheets'), 2017.
(32) GRDF, ADEME and SOLAGRO, "Évaluation du potentiel de méthanation à partir de gaz industriels fatals (hydrogène et dioxyde de car-
bone)" (Evaluation of the methanation potential from by-product industrial gases (hydrogen and carbon dioxide)), 2017.
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
PAGE 15
6.3. Assessment of network adaptation
The method used enables the demand for
transported gas. If applicable, solutions to
gas to be covered by the most competitive
eliminate the constraints on the gas network
renewable sectors first; it also enables
were implemented (meshing, reverse flow).
consideration of the costs of adapting the
These solutions are presented in figure
gas network (distribution and transport to a
9. These profiles and solutions were then
lesser degree) to convey this renewable gas to
extrapolated to the whole of mainland
consumers.
France.
The positioning of the production units
The national supply-demand balance was
and the necessary changes to the network
examined for all the scenarios, using different
(connection pipelines, storage capacities,
sets of climate data to test the resilience of
reverse flow stations) were evaluated in
the gas system to exceptional y hot or cold
detail for four typical departments with
years, and daily cold spel s.
different profiles in terms of consumption
The resilience of the gas system was studied
and production density.
using different sets of climate date for each
An optimisation algorithm then enabled
scenario.
identification of a new configuration for
The storage requirements thus evaluated
the gas network to enable the connection
were compared with existing storage capacity,
of production units involving a range of
or storage capacity whose development has
connection solutions: connection to the
already been confirmed, both in terms of
distribution network, connection to the
volume and output.
transport network or connection via road-
FIGURE 9: ILLUSTRATION OF THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS TO CONNECT AN ANAEROBIC DIGESTION
PLANT
Road-transported
Connection to
Connection to
gas injection
the distribution network
the transport network
Liquefaction station
and analyser
Compressor
Distribution
network
Transport network
injection station
injection station
Reception and
de-conditioning
station
HP/LP
Distribution
pressure
network
reducing
Distribution
meshing
station
network
injection station
Existing gas
distribution
Existing gas
network
transport
network
Reverse flow
Existing gas
stations
distribution
network
PAGE 16
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
FIGURE 10: SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCING AND STORAGE EVOLUTION (NORMAL YEAR)
2,500
120
100
2,000
80
1,500
60
1,000
Storage – TWh
40
Production and demand in GWh/day
Power-to-gas
500
20
Pyrogasification
Anaerobic digestion
Demand
0
0
Storage
.
.
.
eb
.
.
ug.
v.
1 Jan. 1 F
1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun. 1 Jul. 1 A
1 Sep 1 Oct 1 No
1 Dec.
6.4. Full cost assessment
The cost assessment includes:
5. Power-to-gas with costs of €65-185/MWhHCV,
• production costs;
depending on the sector. The Power-to-
• distribution and transport costs;
CH4 sector fal s within the range of €105-
• storage costs.
185/MWhHCV. It is important to note that
Production costs are evaluated for each
this cost also includes an average CO2
sector, including resource procurement costs
procurement cost of €10/MWh (33)
HCV
. Power-
and transformation costs. These costs increase
to-H2 costs less than Power-to-CH4 within
with the level of resource mobilisation due to
the range of €65-125/MWh. The ranges
increasing mobilisation costs: for example, the
presented depend on the hypotheses
last TWh of wood would have to be extracted
used for the purchase price of electricity.
from forest areas that are more difficult to
The development of power-to-gas induces
operate (access difficulties, rough terrain,
extra costs (development of electricity
degree of plot division, etc.).
production means) and benefits (drop in
In increasing order of cost, this gives:
flexibility requirements for the electric
grid), which, depending on their economic
1. Recovered energies at €30-40/MWhHCV
al ocation, are reflected in two variants. The
2. RDF pyrogasification at €40/MWhHCV
"preferential price of electricity for flexible
3. Anaerobic digestion, with costs below
consumer" variant corresponds to a price of
€80/MWh
electricity below its production cost price,
HCV
4. Biomass/wood pyrogasification with costs
reflecting the economic benefit of power-
of €80-120/MWh
to-gas for the electric system.
HCV
(33) This cost varies from one scenario to another (€7 -17/MWhHCV, i.e. €41-77/tCO2), depending on access to CO2 sources. Anaerobic digestion
and pyrogasification provide sources of relatively pure CO2 that are considered free: they are therefore used first. More costly solutions
are then considered to meet the needs of each scenario: capture from combustion plants, transport, storage.
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
PAGE 17
The "price of electricity at spot market price'
The costs of transport network
variant corresponds to a higher cost of
modification were deemed insignificant. An
procurement (34).
initial analysis indicates that the size of the
The costs of connection and network
current transport network is compatible with
adaptation were then assessed. These
the 2050 scenarios studied.
adaptations include the creation of reverse
For the other existing network costs, it
flow compression stations between the
is assumed that network operation and
distribution and transport networks. The
renewal costs will remain similar to current
exercise was carried out for four typical
costs. The estimation was based on the
departments. The results were extrapolated
transport (ATRT5) and distribution (ATRD5)
national y, taking into account the differences
tariff evaluation.
in access to biomass resources (distance).
Storage costs were estimated on the basis
of current costs, modulated according to the
annual storage volume used in each of the
modelled scenarios.
FIGURE 11: PRODUCTION COSTS OF THE DIFFERENT SECTORS IN 2050,
ACCORDING TO THE OVERALL RESOURCE MOBILISED
Power-to-CH4 -
180
price of electricity at
the spot market price
160
Power-to-CH4 -
preferential price of
electricity for flexible
140
consumer
Power-to-H2 -
price of electricity at
120
the spot market price
Power-to-H2 -
100
preferential price of
electricity for flexible
consumer
80
Pyrogasification - Wood
Anaerobic digestion
Production costs (€/MWh)
60
Pyrogasification - RDF
40
By-product H2 anaerobic
digestion
20
NB: for the anaerobic digestion and
pyrogasification-wood sectors, pro-
duction costs depend on the overall
0
level of mobilisation of biomass
resources, including the resources
0
50
100
150
200 mobilised for usages other than
the production of injectable gas
Resource mobilised in injectable gas equivalent (TWh )
(combustion).
HCV
(34) Depending on the level of power-to-gas production in the scenarios, the average cost of electricity procurement varies from €67 to €82/
MWh in the "price of electricity at the spot market price' variant and between €30 and €56/MWh in the "preferential price of electricity for
flexible consumer" variant.
PAGE 18
A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050? – Technical/economic feasibility study
ADEME
COLLECTIONS
ADEME IN BRIEF
ADEME (the French environment and energy management
ACHIEVEMENTS
ADEME as a catalyst: Players relate
agency) contributes to the implementation of public policies in
their experience and share their
know-how.
the fields of environment, energy and sustainable development.
It provides expertise and advice to companies, local authorities,
EXPERTISE
ADEME as an expert: Reporting
public authorities and private individuals to enable progress in
the results of research, studies
environmental initiatives. The agency also helps with project
and group projects under its
supervision.
funding, from research to implementation in the following areas:
waste management, ground preservation, energy efficiency and
FACTS AND FIGURES
ADEME as a reference: Providing
renewable energies, raw material savings, air quality, reducing
objective analyses based on
noise pollution, transition to a circular economy and reducing food
precise indicators that are regularly
updated.
waste.
KEYS FOR ACTION
ADEME as a facilitator: Publishing
ADEME is a public institution, under the joint supervision of the
practical guides to help players
Ministry for the Ecological and Inclusive Transition and the Ministry
to implement their projects
methodologically and/or in
of Higher Education, Research and Innovation.
compliance with regulations.
HORIZONS
ADEME into the future: Proposing
a prospective, realistic view of
the challenges of the energy and
ecology transition for a desirable
future to be built together.
A 100% RENEWABLE GAS
MIX IN 2050?
ADEME contributes to the discussions on France's proactive
strategy, notably by examining possible trajectories for
the French energies of the future and has been publishing
energy-climate scenarios on a regular basis since 2013. This
study,
"A 100% renewable gas mix in 2050?", conducted by
ADEME in collaboration with GRDF and GRTgaz, follows
on from the works published in 2016 - 2017, and concerns
the second most consumed energy in France, gas. Herein,
ADEME explores the conditions of the technical and
economic feasibility of a gas system in 2050 based on 100%
renewable gas.
The work is based on ADEME's 2035-2050 energy scenario,
with a level of final demand for gas in 2050 of around
300 TWh, compared with today's figure of 460 TWh.
The results, based on sensitivity analyses and various
renewable gas production mix scenarios, reveal that there
is a theoretical potential source of renewable gas that could
fulfil this lower demand for energy in 2050 at an overall
cost of gas between €116 and €153/MWh. It would involve
making some modifications to the gas system and notably
development of the complementarity between the gas
network and the electric grid. This confirms that to improve
the sustainability of our energy system, we must strengthen
the interactions between the energy vectors and optimise
their synergies, at various territorial scales.
www.ademe.fr
ISBN 979-10-297-1055-1
010521