[DRAFT] Non-paper on Cars/Vans CO2 Regulation proposal: Additional assessment of
higher ambition levels for the targets and ZEV/LEV benchmarks
Introduction [45%_40%ZLEV scenario to be completed]
This non-paper complements the Impact Assessment accompanying the legislative proposal
setting CO2 standards for cars and vans post-2020. It analyses the impacts of additional
scenarios1 using the same methodological approach as in the Impact Assessment.
The assumptions made for the target levels and the incentive for zero- and low-emisison
vehicles (ZLEV) for cars and vans under the additional scenarios considered in this paper are
summarised in the table below.
Scenario
Target levels
ZLEV Incentive2
2025
2030
Type
Mandate/Benchmark level
2025
2030
45%_40%ZLEV
20%
45%
Two-way
20%
40%
crediting system
50%_30%ZLEV
25%
50%
Two-way
15%
30%
crediting system
50%_50%ZLEV
25%
50%
Two-way
25%
50%
crediting system
75%3
45%
75%
ZEV Mandate
15%
-
Fleet composition
The table below provides the projected market shares of ZLEV in 2030 in the new cars fleet
under the different scenarios.
Projected market shares in 2030 in the new cars fleet
Fuel Cell
Total Zero and
Plug-in hybrid
Battery Electric
Scenario
vehicles
Low Emission
vehicles (PHEV)
Vehicles (BEV)
(FCEV)
Vehicles (ZLEV)
30%
11%
7%
2%
20%
40%
16%
10%
2.5%
29%
45%_40%ZLEV
50%
22%
13%
3%
38%
50%_30%ZLEV
13%
18%
5%
36%
50%_50%ZLEV
4%
43%
5%
52%
75%
29%
45%
9%
83%
1 The non-paper presents the results of these additional scenarios together with the results of scenarios already
analysed in the Impact Assessment, i e Scenarios 30%, 40% and 50%
2 The definition and the accounting rule for ZLEV are as in the Commission proposal, except for scenario 75%
where a mandate is set for zero-emission vehicles only
3 Scenario 75% also assumes that the target is set at 0 g CO2/km starting from 2035
1
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