Informal meeting with social partners
Ref. Ares(2021)3024303 - 06/05/2021
Online, 6 October 2020
Foresight
Main messages
The coronavirus crisis surprised us, even though experts had been warning for years
about possible respiratory disease-based pandemics. It has claimed the lives of almost
a million people and led to economic, social and psychological hardship across Europe
and the world.
We cannot expect the future to become less disruptive – new trends and shocks will
continue to affect our lives and we need to be prepared. At the same time, the
European Union must continue to lead the green, digital, and fair transitions, which cut
across al policy areas.
Strategic foresight will help us not only better understand these transformations; it is a
call to action to shape the world around us. If we want to be successful and future-proof
EU policies, we will need to have all European institutions, especially Member States
sharing and supporting this approach.
The Commission adopted on 9 September 2020 its first annual Strategic Foresight
Report – our flagship foresight product. I trust it will offer ample food for thought for
fruitful exchanges with all our social partners on how to make our continent more
resilient and fairer today and in the future.
In the report, we explain how the Commission plans to embed foresight into EU
policymaking. This is very relevant for our joint work forward. Examples are:
We will systematically conduct foresight exercises for all major policy initiatives to
help identify potential pathways for the twin transitions.
We will build a collaborative and inclusive foresight cooperation and alliances with
EU and international institutions and partners, including social partners.
Every year, we will publish a forward-looking Strategic Foresight Report, testing
issues of critical interest to Europe’s future and analysing emerging trends and
challenges to inform our policy- and decision-making.
These reports will aim to feed into the Commission’s work programmes and our
multiannual programming exercises.
The coronavirus pandemic has reaffirmed the need to make our policies more
evidence-based, future-proof, and centred on resilience. Hence, the 2020 Strategic
Foresight Report provides a structural analysis of the EU’s resilience along four
interrelated dimensions: (i) social and economic; (ii) geopolitical; (iii) green; and (iv)
digital.
For example, a key vulnerability to be exposed by the crisis are deepening inequalities,
between poor and rich, young and old, women and men. On the other hand, the
foresight report identifies social partners are an important capacity contributing to
Europe’s social and economic resilience. Through social dialogue, social partners
contribute to sustainable and inclusive growth. Such social dialogue is more important
than ever as we recover from this crisis.
The pandemic has not only thrown a sharp light on our vulnerabilities and capacities,
but presents also opportunities that the EU cannot afford to miss on the way to the
recovery. That is why I am here with you today, to ask you: What opportunities must
the EU seize now, in this moment, to strengthen our long-term resilience?
Topics for discussion
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Informal meeting with social partners
Online, 6 October 2020
I invite you to share your views on this first foresight report and engage with the
Commission on the next steps. I am also especially interested to hear your
recommendations on how we can foster cooperation on future reports and foresight
projects.
The Commission is committed to better coordinating European strategic foresight
capabilities across Europe. That is why I intend to launch an EU-wide Foresight
Network and believe that the upcoming European Strategy and Political Analysis
System (ESPAS) Conference in November 2020 is the right moment to do this. If you
would like to participate, please get in touch with us and we will send you an invitation.
I look forward to a fruitful discussion with you and count on your support in future
foresight work.
Defensives
Will foresight make Commission policies fairer?
The European Union policy-making system is what guarantees fairness.
However, we need to engage more with citizens.
We increasingly understand that the consultation part of our regulatory process where
we ask citizens for their views help but do not completely alleviate the problem.
We believe that foresight can help us engage with citizens:
It can make engagement more meaningful by focussing on the future instead of
highly technical details of regulatory practice.
It can also make it more impactful by ensuring that we understand what people care
about and that we use their creativity in thinking about all possible future challenges
and opportunities.
How does the Commission plan to embed strategic foresight into policy-making
and the policy cycle? What is its added value, demonstrated via a concrete
example?
The Commission will be embedding foresight into EU policymaking by:
Conducting systematic foresight exercises on key policy initiatives and strategies
planned in the Commission Work Programme, as well as on cross-cutting topics of
relevance for Europe’s future, including building reference foresight scenarios;
Making foresight a key element of the revised Better Regulation toolbox.
Supporting the development of strategic foresight capacities in the EU and its
Member States; and
Building a collaborative and inclusive foresight community with other European and
international actors, such as other institutions, Member States, think tanks,
academia, stakeholders in industry and civil society.
As a concrete example of this effort, this year’s Strategic Foresight Report proposes
moving towards resilience dashboards, which could help answer a fundamental
question: are we succeeding, through our policies and recovery strategy, in making the
EU more resilient?
The resilience dashboards will be developed with the Member States and other key
stakeholders, and the final list of indicators will be informed by strategic foresight, for
instance as regards the choice of indicators to represent resilience. T
his will be an important starting point to strengthen the Commission’s monitoring
toolbox when it comes to resilience as a new policy compass after the COVID-19 crisis.
Topics for discussion
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