Ref. Ares(2021)4296942 - 01/07/2021
Winter Outlook 2020/2021 state of play
ECG web conference – 16 October 2020
Steps to improve Data Quality for ENTSO-E
Common
Common
definition for
rules across
each data
Europe
Enhanced
Quality
Visualization
checks
tools
2
Data collection process
Demand
Scenario
•
Template and guidelines for TSOs’ experts
forecast
storyline
Prepara-
•
Prefilled data
tion
•
Support in providing the data
Data
•
Webinars, e-mails to TSOs’ experts
PECD
PEMMDB
collection
window
Pan-European
Pan-European
•
Climate
Market
Scripted checks
Network
•
Database
Modelling Data
Data
Identification of missing/wrong data
Base
model
check
•
Asking for feedback/updates
•
Coordinated with study teams: releasing of data
NTC
Data
•
Data issues identified by the study teams
Hydro
releasing
values
•
Building
End of data updates
models
3
Examples of data checks through visualization
Aggregated planned
Visualization per
unavailability of
bidding zone
conventional power plants
4
Scenarios for 2020/2021 winter outlook
Reference adequacy situation
Base scenario
• Information available in September
Foreseen COVID impacts
(postponed maintenance)
• Impact of COVID-19 – first wave (2020 spring-summer)
Assessment of adequacy risks considering non-market
Non-market resources –
Non-market
resources* under base scenario
generation or demand side
resource
resources available for TSO
• Base scenario
scenario
activation;
• Non-market resources activated
Pan-European cooperation
Assessment of adequacy risks if COVID-19 pandemic
250
Scenario under
resumes
200
COVID-19
150
• Base scenario
100
pandemic
• Decreased demand due to pandemic (assuming peak
50
pandemic throughout winter)
0
* include out-of-market demand side response
5
Maintenance overview at European level for 2020/2021 winter
6
Status and timeline of 2020/2021 winter outlook
Currently
Next steps
• final data quality checks
• Preliminary results – first
/beginning of simulations
half of November
• Official publication -
expected by 1 December
2020
7
8