Ref. Ares(2021)4296942 - 01/07/2021
Seasonal Outlooks
Summer Outlook 2017 and next steps
1
Different risks addressed at different times
TYNDP
MAF
L o n g t e r m
M i d t e r m
S h o r t t e r m
>10 years
10 years
5 years
1 year
6 months 1 week
Policy decisions
Investment decisions
Operational decisions
REAL TIME
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
2
What do the outlooks tell you?
Role of interconnections
Influence of external factors: weather, consumer behaviour…
Sensitivity analysis: look for severe case scenario (1 in 10 years) &
see how system reacts
Review of the previous season for a deeper understanding and
improvements
3
ENTSO-E seasonal outlooks- Stepwise approach
Collect inputs from TSOs
Build pan-European contraining scenarios
At synchronous pan-European peak time
At low demand time + high RES
(upward adequacy) => Wednesdays 7 pm
(downward adequacy) => Sundays 5 am & 11 am
Focused analysis on regions potentially at risk
Probabilistic approach using
Aim is to estimate the
Main drivers
numerous situations
probability that an
are identified
(temperature, wind...)
issue could occur
4
Evolution of the generation mix 2016 - 2017
Difference in GW
5
Summer Outlook- Severe Conditions
Week
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
AL
AT
Capacity excess (export)
BA
BE
Import driven by market
BG
CH
CY
Import needed for adequacy
CZ
DE
15% of deficit cannot be covered with imports
DK
EE
ES
Sensitivity with Italy split into 6 Bidding Zones
FI
FR
GB
ITn
GR
HR
ITcn
HU
IE
IT
ITcs
LT
LU
ITs
LV
ME
ITsar
MK
MT
ITsic
NI
NL
NO
PL
PT
RO
In Poland no risk at synchronous time (7 pm CET),
RS
SE
possible issue at local peak (early afternoon)
SI
SK
TR
6
UA_W
Italy – Probabilistic assessment
In case of very high temperatures (daily
average >28°C) and low hydro resources
potential risk of planned load shedding
Risk level considered very high
from mid-June to end July
Central-North bidding zone is
the most critical one
Main countermeasures:
demand side response
maximising imports from the neighbouring countries
maximising generation capacity (e.g. maintenance reschedule, reactivation of
7
mothballed plants)
Risks, mainly in weeks 29 and 30:
Focus on Poland at local •
Long lasting heat wave, dry weather;
peak hour
•
Limited import capacity on
(13-14 CEST)
synchronous profile with DE+CZ+SK due
to high unscheduled flows through
Poland (in the west to south direction).
Operational, extraordinary measures:
•
Additional, emergency import to
Poland on synchronous profile under
the condition of simultaneous
multilateral re-dispatch;
•
Demand Side Response contracted in
advance.
8
Downward regulation
Week
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
AL
AT
BA
BE
BG
CH
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
Export needs when
ES
FI
FR
minimum demand
GB
GR
with high renewables
HR
HU
IE
(Sunday 11 am CEST)
ITn
ITcn
ITcs
ITs
ITsar
ITsic
Risk of wind/PV
LT
LU
LV
curtailment in
ME
MK
Southern Italy, Sicily
MT
NI
NL
and Sardinia
NO
PL
PT
RO
RS
SE
SI
SK
TR
UA_W
9
What for next Winter Outlook 2017/18?
More severe scenarios (P95 for temperature/ PV/ wind)
Hydro reservoir curve for main hydro countries with
awareness if low level. Overall table in main report
(over average, in average, below)
Historical occurence of critical events and stress
tests “what if projected again to current grid” (TSO
expert view)
Multiple outage probality: N-2 example on
small area (e.g. Italy) At least generators
outages, if possible also HVDC/
interconnection
10
Next steps beyond 2017
Target methodology and tool to converge with Mid Term Adequacy Forecast
(MAF) with high challenging timeline for calculation
Contribute to identify crisis scenarios
(cf. Risk Preparedness draft regulation, Art 8)
Further coordination with week ahead adequacy, especially consistent
methodology
(cf. Risk Preparedness draft regulation, Art 5)
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Thank you
12
Key takeaways
Summer Outlook
> Italy & Poland to be monitored
> Outlooks to evolve and improve notably
with lessons from last winter
> Outlooks need to evolve to cover more
severe conditions
13
xxxx@xxxxxx.xx - entsoe.eu – Follow us on
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Downward regulation
Week
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39
AL
AT
BA
BE
BG
CH
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
ES
Export needs at the
FI
FR
night time minimum
GB
GR
HR
demand and high wind
HU
IE
(Sunday 5 am CEST)
IT
ITn
ITcn
ITcs
ITs
ITsar
ITsic
LT
LU
LV
Sufficient transmission
ME
MK
capacity to export
MT
NI
NL
excess of generation
NO
PL
PT
RO
RS
SE
SI
SK
TR
UA_W
15
ENTSO-E General Methodology – Upward adequacy
Non usable
capacity at
reference point
System service
reserves
Unavailable
Capacity
Forced outages
Net
Generating
Planned outages
Capacity
(maintenance)
Remaining
Demand Side
Capacity
Response
Reliable available
capacity at
reference point
Peak Demand
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General Methodology – Downward regulation
System service
reserves
(downward)
Excess of
generation
Other must-run
generation
Pumping capacity
Run of river
Variable
renewable
Off-peak demand
generation (e.g.
wind, solar)
Page 17
Measures planned to be applied in case the generation is not sufficient to cover the load
• Voltage reduction (in cooperation
• Internal re-dispatching (also to increase
l
with DSOs)
Y
rea
import capacity)
DA-
to
• Demand response - reducing the
• Using replacing reserves for balancing
time
ose
power supply of consumers with
• Power curtailments (planned or in
INTRA
Cl
such contracts
emergency)
• Countertrading and re-dispatching (to
1-
s
• Changing the standard topology of
D
day
increase import capacity
the grid (also to increase import
2
ee
capacity)
-
• Reducing export capacity (if permission
D
thr
-
ahead
o
w
available; it depends on the law whether it is
3
T
-
D
a costly measure)
Non-costly measures
Costly measures
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How to keep system safe for the consumers?
Knowledge sharing & cooperation at
European level essential to maintain safe
system
Example of possible gradual measures to maintain the supply that operators can use
Structural grid
Local
Extra
reinforcement
Demand
optimisation
generation
Voltage
Local
internally &
Response
of the grid
reserves
lowering
power cuts
cross border
EXCEPTIONAL MEASURES
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Simplified merit order aporiach
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ENTSO-E Target methodology
Probabilistic method using
Integration with appropriate
climate database to assess
market-based stochastic
Hourly resolution
market prices & functioning,
models to assess adequacy
including during times of
scarcity
Extensive range of
indicators
, e.g.
LOLE/
More detailed view of
cross-
EENS/ LOLP, RES
Assessment informs about the
border contributions to a
curtailments,
capacity
country’s system adequacy
'need for flexibility'
factor (as indicator for
likelihood of units staying
online)
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