Ref. Ares(2021)4296942 - 01/07/2021
Methodology for the European
resource adequacy
assessment
European Network of Transmission System Operators
for Electricity (ENTSO-E)
Electricity Coordination Group - 22 November 2019
Ensuring resource adequacy in all time horizons & regional scopes
1
1
1
Several years
Several months
month
week
day
Pan
Mid-Term
European
Update
Seasonal
Update
Short-Term
Resource
inputs
Adequacy
inputs
Adequacy
Adequacy
when risk
optional
optional
detected
Regional or
National
Mid-Term
Seasonal
Intra-week
regional
regional
regional
sensitivity
sensitivity
adequacy
Electricity Regulation
• Extend and replace MAF as of 2021
• Enhanced ambitious probabilistic
methodology
3
European Resource Adequacy Assessment
Three main methodology packages (to be delivered by ENTSO-E):
1.
1
Methodology for the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA)
2.
2
Methodology for:
• Cost of New Entry (CONE)
• Reliability Standards
• Value of Lost Load (VoLL)
3.
3
Methodology for calculating the maximum entry capacity for cross-border
participation to Capacity Mechanisms
4
European Resource Adequacy Assessment :
A basis for enhancements of market design and integration & security of
supply
Methodologies to be
developed within 6
months after entry into
force
One adequacy
Pan-European and
methodology for
national assessments
European, regional
complementing each
and national
other in a consistent
assessments
Common adequacy
approach
indicators as a basis for
regionally coordinated
national security of
supply standards
5
European Resource Adequacy Assessment
What are the differences with current methodologies?
Current Approach (MAF 2019)
Target Approach
• Probabilistic market modelling
Probabilistic market modelling
• 7 years ahead - 2 simulated years
10 years ahead - annual granularity
• Bottom-up approach and expectations of
Economic viability of generation assets,
commissioning / decommissioning
integrated in the model
• No explicit CM considerations
Integrated consideration of CM
• NTC approach, flow-based only tested
Compliance with FBMC when available
• No sectoral integration
Sectorial integration (P2X consideration)
6
Resource Adequacy methodologies – Timeline
2019
2020
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
Consultation of the
methodologies
TSOs
External consultation
consultation
Public workshop
16th December
ERAA, CONE/VoLL/Reliability Standards -
Finalisation
Methodology drafting
for
submission
Regular exchanges with EC/ACER
to ACER
MAF 2019
MAF 2019 calculations and drafting
public
MAF 2020 preparation
consultation
7
European
Europ
Resource A
ean Resource dequacy
Adequa
methodologies:
cy methodologies:
stay tuned
stay tuned and have your
and have your say!
say!
European
Value of Lost
Cost of new
Reliability
Resource
Load (VOLL)
entry (CONE)
standard (RS)
adequacy
assessment
(ERAA)
4 December 2019 - Public consultation on all methodologies opens
for 8 weeks
16 December – Stakeholder workshop on the Resource adequacy
8
methodologies
Thank you for your attention
9