Ref. Ares(2021)4296942 - 01/07/2021
Mid-Term Adequacy Forecast
1
Paving the way to Resource Adequacy
Resource Adequacy: temporal and spatial
granularity
10
1
1
1
years
year
several months
week
day
Pan
Mid-Term
Update inputs
Seasonal
Update inputs
Short-Term
European
Resource
Outlook
Adequacy
Adequacy
when risk
optional
optional
detected
Regional/
Mid-Term
Seasonal
Intra-week
National*
regional
regional
regional
sensitivity
sensitivity
adequacy
*Regional/national studies focus on detailed modelling of a region:
•
keeping European geographical perimeter and details outside the focus
region,
•
retaining ENTSO-E’s methodology (e.g. probabilistic)
MAF 2018 preliminary results
In
base case no major adequacy issue compared to last
year (with exception of islands)
oFlow-based
“What if” Low
sensitivity two
-Carbon
different approaches
sensitivity which level of
(2020 as in PLEF,
adequacy?
2025 with TYNDP grid
model)
Pa
ge
4
MAF 2018 preliminary messages
Results based on best estimate scenario, with important impact if
assumption changes
Low carbon sensitivity provides an indication to relevant stakeholders, on
the needs to adapt the generation mix, should “carbon phase – out”
occurs in (some of) those countries.
MAF sets the framework for detailed regional/national studies to
investigate in depth specific solutions – choices (among the different
technological choices DSR, RES, storage, capacity, flexibility,
interconnectors, etc.)
Crucial role of interconnectors especially in period of scarcity
Continuous data quality and methodology improvements increase
robustness of results
MAF methodology becoming a reference for other adequacy studies in
Europe
5
APPENDIXES
6
Energy transition requires a robust methodology
High
High
temporal
spatial
volatility
volatility
Probabilistic
Interconnections
(hourly)
(Pan European)
Embedding the MAF to unfold its ful potential
MAF 2020
Adopt
Regional &
measures
End
National
to
2018
Analysis
eliminate
distortions
Stakeholder
Data
Consultatio
Collection
n
MAF 2018
…
Oct 2018
European
Data
…
Modelling
Collection
Report and
& Analysis
MAF 2019
dataset
8
Interdependent measures to eliminate distortions
Clean Energy Package:
“Where the European resource adequacy assessment identifies
Generation
a resource adequacy concern
Member States shall identify
Capacity
any regulatory distortions that caused or contributed to the
emergence of the concern”
Inter-
Storage
connection
Adequacy
Strong Pan-European and
technological
interdependencies
Energy
Flexibility
Efficiency
Need to coordinate and align
Demand-
Side
activities
Response
9
Resource Adequacy: general approach
Storage
Available Generation
Network Infrastructure
Demand
Deterministic Forecast:
Deterministic Forecast:
• ENTSOs’ Scenarios
• ENTSOs’ Scenarios
• Planned Outages
Stochastic Uncertainty:
Stochastic Uncertainty:
• Temperature
• Wind generation
• Solar generation
• Forced outages