Ref. Ares(2021)4296942 - 01/07/2021
Towards an
CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS
Our Vision for a Clean Planet by
•
The Paris Agreement, requires to reduce GHG emissions, with the
objective to hold global temperature increase to well below 2°C
and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C
•
The IPCC report confirms that limiting climate change to 1.5°C is
necessary to avoid these worst impacts. Climate change
undermines security and prosperity in the broadest sense.
•
For Europe, limiting temperature increase well below 2°C means
80% emissions reduction by 2050 compared to 1990.
•
For Europe to lead the world in climate action, it means achieving
net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
•
The Long Term Strategy shows that transforming our economy is
possible and beneficial. It also highlights the challenges of the
transformation, but the status quo is not an option.
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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS
Scenarios for Europe in 2050
• Scenarios are used for projection about demand and supply
of energy (including land use) compliant with Paris
targets
• 8 scenarios analyse different technology pathways (high
electrification, high energy efficiency, circular economy,
etc.)
• Different levels of ambition: -80% emissions and net-zero
by 2050 plus a Baseline (business as usual)
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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS
Europe Today
•
The EU is about to
achieve its 2020
targets
•
Targets for 2030
are agreed in EU
law
•
Business as usual
means -45% GHG
emissions in 2030
(vs. 1990)
•
Without increasing
ambition: -60%
emissions in 2050
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Analysed scenarios in line with Paris Agreement
Long Term Strategy Options
Energy
Circular
1.5°C
1.5°C Sustainable
Electrification
Hydrogen
Power-to-X
Efficiency
Economy
Combination
Technical
Lifestyles
(ELEC)
(H2)
(P2X)
(EE)
(CIRC)
(COMBO)
(1.5TECH)
(1.5LIFE)
Hydrogen in
E-fuels in
Increased
Cost-efficient
Based on
Pursuing deep
Based on
Electrification in
industry,
industry,
resource and
combination of
COMBO and
Main Drivers
energy efficiency
COMBO with
all sectors
transport and
transport and
material
options from 2°C
CIRC with
in all sectors
more BECCS, CCS
buildings
buildings
efficiency
scenarios
lifestyle changes
GHG target
-80% GHG (excluding sinks)
-90% GHG (incl.
-100% GHG (incl. sinks)
in 2050
[“well below 2°C” ambition]
sinks)
[“1.5°C” ambition]
• Higher energy efficiency post 2030
• Market coordination for infrastructure deployment
Major Common
• Deployment of sustainable, advanced biofuels
• BECCS present only post-2050 in 2°C scenarios
Assumptions
• Moderate circular economy measures
• Significant learning by doing for low carbon technologies
• Digitilisation
• Significant improvements in the efficiency of the transport system.
Power is nearly decarbonised by 2050. Strong penetration of RES facilitated by system optimization
Power sector
(demand-side response, storage, interconnections, role of prosumers). Nuclear still plays a role in the power sector and CCS deployment faces limitations.
Use of H2 in
Use of e-gas in
Reducing energy
Higher recycling
CIRC+COMBO
Electrification of
rates, material
Industry
targeted
targeted
demand via
but stronger
processes
substitution,
Combination of
applications
applications
Energy Efficiency
circular measures
most Cost-
efficient options
Increased
Deployment of
Deployment of
Increased
Sustainable
from “well below
COMBO but
CIRC+COMBO
Buildings
deployment of
renovation rates
H2 for heating
e-gas for heating
buildings
2°C” scenarios
stronger
but stronger
heat pumps
and depth
with targeted
Faster
• Increased
application
• CIRC+COMBO
H2 deployment
E-fuels
electrification for
modal shift
Mobility as a
(excluding CIRC)
but stronger
Transport sector
for HDVs and
deployment for
all transport
• Electrification
service
• Alternatives to
some for LDVs
all modes
modes
as in ELEC
air travel
Limited
• Dietary changes
H2 in gas
E-gas in gas
Other Drivers
enhancement
• Enhancement
distribution grid
distribution grid
natural sink
natural sink
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All sectors have to contribute
GHG emissions trajectory in a 1.5°C scenario
6000
5000
4000
3000
q
e
2
COt
M 2000
1000
0
-1000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Non-CO2 other
Non-CO2 Agriculture
Residential
Transport
Tertiary
Industry
Power
Carbon Removal Technologies
LULUCF
Net emissions
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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS
Renewable energy supply in 2050
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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS
Power generation capacity in 2050
3000
BECCS
2500
Fossil fuel (CCS)
2000
Fossil fuels
Nuclear
1500
GW
Other renewables
1000
Solar
Wind offshore
500
Wind onshore
0
e
C
C
X
H
E
n
O
i
EE
E
2
F
l
IR
L
H2
C
P
B
LI
2000
2015
2030
e
C
E
E
s
M
T
.5
a
O
.5
1
B
C
1
2050
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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS
Electricity stored in 2050
500
450
400
350
e-gas
300
h
Hydrogen
W 250
T
Batteries
200
150
Pumped hydro
100
50
0
2030 Baseline
EE
CIRC
ELEC
H2
P2X
COMBO 1.5TECH 1.5LIFE
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CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS
Storage capacity in 2050
500
400
300
GW 200
100
0
5
e
E
1
03
EE
C
C
X
O
H
F
0
0
in
E
2
l
RI
L
H2
B
C
I
2
2
e
P
E
L
s
C
E
M
T
5.
a
O
5.
1
B
C
1
Pumped hydro
Batteries
Hydrogen
PtG
PtL
10
CLEAN ENERGY FOR ALL EUROPEANS
Thank you
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