Ref. Ares(2021)4296942 - 01/07/2021 Mid-term Adequacy Forecast 2019 European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) Electricity Coordination Group - 22 November 2019
Different risks addressed with different timeframes L o n g t e r m M i d t e r m S h o r t t e r m >10 years 10 years 5 years 1 year 6 months 1 week Policy decisions REAL Operational decisions Investment decisions TIME UNCERTAINTY INCREASES 2
MAF: General Methodology Supply Network Infrastructure Demand Known Information: Known Information: Known Information:
• Capacities
• Network topology
• Demand profiles
• Planned outages
• Planned outages
• Demand-side response
• Hydro energy
• Exports & imports
• Storage Uncertainties: Uncertainty: Uncertainty:
• Wind generation
• Forced outages
• Weather conditions
• Solar generation • Forced outages 3
MAF: Construction of Sample Years 35 x N (Monte Carlo) sample years 35 years of interdependent N random draws for climate data unplanned outages
MAF 2019 Results: Target year 2021 vs 2025
Stress-test scenario with further reduction of conventional thermal generation in 11 countries for 2025 Base-Case 2025 Low Carbon
*only zones with LOLE > 0.5 hours/year are shown
Source: ENTSO-E MAF 2019 Thank you for your attention 7
MAF 2019 comparison with MAF 2018 – year 2025
MAF 2019 comparison with MAF 2018 – year 2021
MAF 2019 Results: LOLE and P95 for target year 2021
MAF 2019 Results: LOLE and P95 for target year 2025