EUAA DARS Forecasting Tools and Push Factor Index
Dear European Union Agency for Asylum,
Under the right of access to documents in the EU treaties, as developed in Regulation 1049/2001, I am requesting documents which contain the following information:
All documents detailing the methodology, data sources, algorithms, and validation metrics used by the Data Analysis and Research Sector (DARS) for its quantitative migration prediction models, specifically including the "Push Factor Index" (PFI) and the Early Warning and Preparedness System (EPS).
All evaluation reports, internal audits, or quality assessments concerning the accuracy, limitations, or practical utility of these forecasting models conducted between 2024 and 2026.
The quarterly and/or monthly migration forecasting and trend analysis reports produced by DARS and distributed to EU Member States or the European Commission from January 1, 2023, to the present date.
Thank you for your time and assistance. I look forward to your reply within the statutory timeframe.
Yours faithfully,
Thomas Van den Bergh
Dear Mr Van den Bergh,
Reference is made to your below correspondence dated 17 May 2026.
We hereby acknowledge receipt of your application for access to documents
under Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001, which was registered under reference
number 007337 on 20 May 2026.
In accordance with Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 regarding public access to
European Parliament, Council and Commission documents and Decision No 6 of
the Management Board of EASO laying down practical arrangements regarding
public access to documents of EASO (now EUAA), your application will be
handled within 15 working days from the day of registration.
The (initial) time limit is set to expire on 11 June 2026. In case this
time limit needs to be extended, you will be informed in due course.
Yours sincerely,
European Union Agency for Asylum
Email: [1][EUAA request email]
Website: [2]https://euaa.europa.eu
Dear Mr Van den Bergh,
Reference is made to your application for access to documents under
Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001, which was registered under reference number
007337 on 20 May 2026.
Following a preliminary assessment of your application, the Agency notes
that your request covers a very large number of documents, potentially
amounting to several hundreds.
Given the wide scope of your request, processing it in its current form
would make it exceptionally difficult for the Agency to meet the statutory
deadlines for reply under Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001.
In accordance with Articles 6(3) of the Regulation, and in order to find a
fair and practical solution, the Agency therefore asks you to consider
narrowing down the scope of your request thus enabling the EUAA to
identify and individually assess all relevant documents within the
statutory deadlines.
Once an agreement on the adjusted scope has been reached, the Agency will
promptly proceed with the identification and assessment of the relevant
documents.
Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.
Yours sincerely,
European Union Agency for Asylum
Email: [1][EUAA request email]
Website: [2]https://euaa.europa.eu
From: Public Access To Documents Mailbox <[EUAA request email]>
Sent: 20 May 2026 11:07
To: Thomas Van den Bergh <[FOI #17163 email]>
Subject: RE: access to documents request - EUAA DARS Forecasting Tools and
Push Factor Index
Dear Mr Van den Bergh,
Reference is made to your below correspondence dated 17 May 2026.
We hereby acknowledge receipt of your application for access to documents
under Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001, which was registered under reference
number 007337 on 20 May 2026.
In accordance with Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 regarding public access to
European Parliament, Council and Commission documents and Decision No 6 of
the Management Board of EASO laying down practical arrangements regarding
public access to documents of EASO (now EUAA), your application will be
handled within 15 working days from the day of registration.
The (initial) time limit is set to expire on 11 June 2026. In case this
time limit needs to be extended, you will be informed in due course.
Yours sincerely,
European Union Agency for Asylum
Email: [3][EUAA request email]
Website: [4]https://euaa.europa.eu
Dear Public Access To Documents Mailbox,
Thank you for your cooperation in finding a practical solution under Article 6(3) of Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001. To significantly reduce the administrative workload and ensure a swift process, I hereby agree to narrow down and phase the scope of my application.
For this first phase, I request access exclusively to the following high-level documents produced or received by the Agency (specifically within the Data Analysis and Research Sector - DARS) between January 2022 and May 2026:
Evaluation and Quality Assessments: All final evaluation reports, internal audits, quality assessments, or validation studies concerning the mathematical accuracy, technical limitations, "black box" uncertainties, or practical utility of the migration forecasting models and algorithms used within the Early Warning and Preparedness System (EPS).
Data Integrity and Input Issues: Any internal assessments or briefings regarding the quality, fragmentation, or delays of input data provided by EU Member States (including indicators like the Push Factor Index), and how these data quality issues affect the reliability of the 4-week asylum application forecasts.
To prevent any administrative delays, please note:
This request strictly excludes raw datasets, individual search query logs, or informal daily administrative emails.
I am requesting final versions or, where a final version is not yet officially published, the most recent final drafts or consolidated internal briefings.
Yours sincerely,
Thomas Van den Bergh
Dear Mr Van den Bergh,
Thank you for your cooperation in finding a fair solution and narrowing
the scope of your request.
Reference is made to your request for access to documents under Regulation
(EC) No 1049/2001 dated 17 May 2026, which was registered under reference
number 007337 on 20 May 2026; to our reply of 20 May 2026 (whereby we
requested that you narrow down the scope of your original request) and to
your communication dated 22 May 2026, whereby you refined and restricted
the scope of your request.
Your request has been treated as an application for public access to
documents falling under the provisions of Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 of
the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 May 2001 regarding public
access to European Parliament, Council and Commission documents, in
accordance with Management Board Decision No 6 of 20 September 2011 laying
down practical arrangements to the documents of the European Asylum
Support Office (now EUAA).
Having carefully examined your request, please be informed that the EUAA
has not identified any documents falling under the adjusted scope of your
request.
Given the scope of your request, you may be interested in Section 4.3 of
the EASO Asylum Report 2020 explaining what the Push Factor Index is based
on. We are pleased to inform you that the report is publicly available on
the EUAA website:
[1]https://www.euaa.europa.eu/asylum-report....
Please note that EU Member States do not provide input data for the Push
Factor Index and the EUAA does not produce short-term (4-week) “asylum
application forecasts”.
We hereby trust to have informed you accordingly.
Yours sincerely,
European Union Agency for Asylum
Email: [2][EUAA request email]
Website: [3]https://euaa.europa.eu
Clarification regarding Application for Public Access to Documents – Quantitative Migration Forecasting
Dear EUAA Public Access Team,
Thank you for providing the link to the 2020 Asylum Report section on push factors (4.3).
To ensure we are on the same page, I would like to formally clarify the scope of my request. My application does not concern general, historical public reporting on qualitative push factors.
Instead, my request specifically targets the methodological assessments, user manuals, internal evaluations, and operational reports relating to the active quantitative forecasting tools, short-term projections, and IT-supported predictive models currently utilized or developed by the EUAA to anticipate migration flows.
Given that the European Commission (under case EASE 2026/2862) is currently reviewing the overarching migratory forecasting framework C(2025)684, it is clear that these technical, operational data-sharing systems exist well beyond the scope of public annual reports from 2020.
I kindly ask you to register this clarification and look forward to your formal decision regarding these specific technical and operational documents.
Yours sincerely,
Thomas Van den Bergh
Dear Mr Van den Bergh,
Reference is made to your below correspondence dated 3 July 2026.
We hereby acknowledge receipt of your application for access to documents
under Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001, which was registered under reference
number 007531 on 10 July 2026.
In accordance with Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 regarding public access to
European Parliament, Council and Commission documents and Decision No 6 of
the Management Board of EASO laying down practical arrangements regarding
public access to documents of EASO (now EUAA), your application will be
handled within 15 working days from the day of registration.
The (initial) time limit is set to expire on 31 July 2026. In case this
time limit needs to be extended, you will be informed in due course.
Sincerely,
European Union Agency for Asylum
Email: [1][EUAA request email]
Website: [2]https://euaa.europa.eu
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the easo.europa.eu domain is being
phased out. Please update your contact records with the EUAA domain name.
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
From: Thomas Van den Bergh <[FOI #17163 email]>
Sent: 03 July 2026 14:11
To: Public Access To Documents Mailbox <[EUAA request email]>
Subject: RE: access to documents request - EUAA DARS Forecasting Tools and
Push Factor Index
Clarification regarding Application for Public Access to Documents –
Quantitative Migration Forecasting
Dear EUAA Public Access Team,
Thank you for providing the link to the 2020 Asylum Report section on push
factors (4.3).
To ensure we are on the same page, I would like to formally clarify the
scope of my request. My application does not concern general, historical
public reporting on qualitative push factors.
Instead, my request specifically targets the methodological assessments,
user manuals, internal evaluations, and operational reports relating to
the active quantitative forecasting tools, short-term projections, and
IT-supported predictive models currently utilized or developed by the EUAA
to anticipate migration flows.
Given that the European Commission (under case EASE 2026/2862) is
currently reviewing the overarching migratory forecasting framework
C(2025)684, it is clear that these technical, operational data-sharing
systems exist well beyond the scope of public annual reports from 2020.
I kindly ask you to register this clarification and look forward to your
formal decision regarding these specific technical and operational
documents.
Yours sincerely,
Thomas Van den Bergh
Dear Mr Van den Bergh,
Reference is made to your application for access to documents under
Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001, which was registered under reference number
007531 on 10 July 2026.
Please note that your application is currently being handled by the EUAA
in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 and the Agency’s
Management Board Decision No 6. However, the EUAA will not be in a
position to complete the handling of your application within the initial
time-limit of 15 working days, which is due to expire on 31 July 2026.
An extended time-limit is needed given that additional administrative
efforts are required in terms of, inter alia, carrying out consultations,
identifying all relevant documents, thoroughly examining their contents
and making comprehensive assessments against Article 4 of Regulation (EC)
No 1049/2001 - in order to be able to duly process your request in the
most diligent manner in accordance with the principle of good
administration.
In light of the above, the Agency has decided to extend the time-limit by
an additional 15 working days in accordance with Article 7(3) of
Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001. The new time limit is due to expire on 21
August 2026. Nonetheless, the Agency strives to get back to you as swiftly
as possible.
Sincerely,
European Union Agency for Asylum
Email: [EUAA request email]
Website: https://euaa.europa.eu
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the easo.europa.eu domain is being
phased out. Please update your contact records with the EUAA domain name.
From: Public Access To Documents Mailbox <[EUAA request email]>
Sent: Friday, July 10, 2026 3:23 PM
To: Thomas Van den Bergh <[FOI #17163 email]>
Cc: Public Access To Documents Mailbox <[EUAA request email]>
Subject: Re: access to documents request - EUAA DARS Forecasting Tools and
Push Factor Index
Dear Mr Van den Bergh,
Reference is made to your below correspondence dated 3 July 2026.
We hereby acknowledge receipt of your application for access to documents
under Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001, which was registered under reference
number 007531 on 10 July 2026.
In accordance with Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 regarding public access to
European Parliament, Council and Commission documents and Decision No 6 of
the Management Board of EASO laying down practical arrangements regarding
public access to documents of EASO (now EUAA), your application will be
handled within 15 working days from the day of registration.
The (initial) time limit is set to expire on 31 July 2026. In case this
time limit needs to be extended, you will be informed in due course.
Sincerely,
European Union Agency for Asylum
Email: [1][EUAA request email]
Website: [2]https://euaa.europa.eu
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the easo.europa.eu domain is being
phased out. Please update your contact records with the EUAA domain name.
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
From: Thomas Van den Bergh <[3][FOI #17163 email]>
Sent: 03 July 2026 14:11
To: Public Access To Documents Mailbox <[4][EUAA request email]>
Subject: RE: access to documents request - EUAA DARS Forecasting Tools and
Push Factor Index
Clarification regarding Application for Public Access to Documents –
Quantitative Migration Forecasting
Dear EUAA Public Access Team,
Thank you for providing the link to the 2020 Asylum Report section on push
factors (4.3).
To ensure we are on the same page, I would like to formally clarify the
scope of my request. My application does not concern general, historical
public reporting on qualitative push factors.
Instead, my request specifically targets the methodological assessments,
user manuals, internal evaluations, and operational reports relating to
the active quantitative forecasting tools, short-term projections, and
IT-supported predictive models currently utilized or developed by the EUAA
to anticipate migration flows.
Given that the European Commission (under case EASE 2026/2862) is
currently reviewing the overarching migratory forecasting framework
C(2025)684, it is clear that these technical, operational data-sharing
systems exist well beyond the scope of public annual reports from 2020.
I kindly ask you to register this clarification and look forward to your
formal decision regarding these specific technical and operational
documents.
Yours sincerely,
Thomas Van den Bergh
Dear Mr Van den Bergh,
Reference is made to your request for access to documents under Regulation
(EC) No 1049/2001 dated 3 July 2026, which was registered under reference
number 007531 on 10 July 2026.
Your request has been treated as an application for public access to
documents falling under the provisions of Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 of
the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 May 2001 regarding public
access to European Parliament, Council and Commission documents, in
accordance with Management Board Decision No 6 of 20 September 2011 laying
down practical arrangements to the documents of the European Asylum
Support Office (now EUAA).
Having carefully examined your request and following a particularly
thorough administrative exercise, please be informed that the EUAA has not
identified any documents falling under the scope of your request.
We hereby trust to have informed you accordingly.
Sincerely,
European Union Agency for Asylum
Email: [1][EUAA request email]
Website: [2]https://euaa.europa.eu
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the easo.europa.eu domain is being
phased out. Please update your contact records with the EUAA domain name.
From: Public Access To Documents Mailbox <[EUAA request email]>
Sent: Monday, July 27, 2026 2:52 PM
To: Thomas Van den Bergh <[FOI #17163 email]>
Cc: Public Access To Documents Mailbox <[EUAA request email]>
Subject: RE: access to documents request - EUAA DARS Forecasting Tools and
Push Factor Index
Dear Mr Van den Bergh,
Reference is made to your application for access to documents under
Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001, which was registered under reference number
007531 on 10 July 2026.
Please note that your application is currently being handled by the EUAA
in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 and the Agency’s
Management Board Decision No 6. However, the EUAA will not be in a
position to complete the handling of your application within the initial
time-limit of 15 working days, which is due to expire on 31 July 2026.
An extended time-limit is needed given that additional administrative
efforts are required in terms of, inter alia, carrying out consultations,
identifying all relevant documents, thoroughly examining their contents
and making comprehensive assessments against Article 4 of Regulation (EC)
No 1049/2001 - in order to be able to duly process your request in the
most diligent manner in accordance with the principle of good
administration.
In light of the above, the Agency has decided to extend the time-limit by
an additional 15 working days in accordance with Article 7(3) of
Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001. The new time limit is due to expire on 21
August 2026. Nonetheless, the Agency strives to get back to you as swiftly
as possible.
Sincerely,
European Union Agency for Asylum
Email: [3][EUAA request email]
Website: [4]https://euaa.europa.eu
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the easo.europa.eu domain is being
phased out. Please update your contact records with the EUAA domain name.
From: Public Access To Documents Mailbox <[5][EUAA request email]>
Sent: Friday, July 10, 2026 3:23 PM
To: Thomas Van den Bergh <[6][FOI #17163 email]>
Cc: Public Access To Documents Mailbox <[7][EUAA request email]>
Subject: Re: access to documents request - EUAA DARS Forecasting Tools and
Push Factor Index
Dear Mr Van den Bergh,
Reference is made to your below correspondence dated 3 July 2026.
We hereby acknowledge receipt of your application for access to documents
under Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001, which was registered under reference
number 007531 on 10 July 2026.
In accordance with Regulation (EC) No 1049/2001 regarding public access to
European Parliament, Council and Commission documents and Decision No 6 of
the Management Board of EASO laying down practical arrangements regarding
public access to documents of EASO (now EUAA), your application will be
handled within 15 working days from the day of registration.
The (initial) time limit is set to expire on 31 July 2026. In case this
time limit needs to be extended, you will be informed in due course.
Sincerely,
European Union Agency for Asylum
Email: [8][EUAA request email]
Website: [9]https://euaa.europa.eu
Disclaimer: Please be informed that the easo.europa.eu domain is being
phased out. Please update your contact records with the EUAA domain name.
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
From: Thomas Van den Bergh <[10][FOI #17163 email]>
Sent: 03 July 2026 14:11
To: Public Access To Documents Mailbox <[11][EUAA request email]>
Subject: RE: access to documents request - EUAA DARS Forecasting Tools and
Push Factor Index
Clarification regarding Application for Public Access to Documents –
Quantitative Migration Forecasting
Dear EUAA Public Access Team,
Thank you for providing the link to the 2020 Asylum Report section on push
factors (4.3).
To ensure we are on the same page, I would like to formally clarify the
scope of my request. My application does not concern general, historical
public reporting on qualitative push factors.
Instead, my request specifically targets the methodological assessments,
user manuals, internal evaluations, and operational reports relating to
the active quantitative forecasting tools, short-term projections, and
IT-supported predictive models currently utilized or developed by the EUAA
to anticipate migration flows.
Given that the European Commission (under case EASE 2026/2862) is
currently reviewing the overarching migratory forecasting framework
C(2025)684, it is clear that these technical, operational data-sharing
systems exist well beyond the scope of public annual reports from 2020.
I kindly ask you to register this clarification and look forward to your
formal decision regarding these specific technical and operational
documents.
Yours sincerely,
Thomas Van den Bergh