5 1 Nature Restoration and Climate mitigation.pdf

WHY IS NATURE RESTORATION
Ref. Ares(2023)389474 - 18/01/2023
Ref. Ares(2023)782205 - 02/02/2023
CRITICAL FOR CLIMATE MITIGATION
IN THE EU?
  Publication date:
December 2022
Authors:
Evelyn Underwood, Gabriel e Aubert (IEEP)
The EU has set targets to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 and to
reach climate neutrality by 2050 to keep global temperature increase below 1.5°C. Europe’s land
is vital to achieving this goal. The land use and land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector will
contribute by saving and storing an additional 310 to 400 MtCO2eq by 2030.
It will be impossible for the EU to meet its climate neutrality goal by 2050 and
the  LULUCF  land  sink  target  without  a  significant  scaling  up  of  nature
restoration.
Nature  restoration  is  central  to  our  efforts  to  mitigate  climate  change  as  it
reduces and avoids emissions from land, enhances the capacity of ecosystems
to  capture  and  sequester  carbon  in  natural  sinks,  and  can  prevent  future
emissions by increasing ecosystem resilience.
WHAT CAN THE NRL ACHIEVE?
•  Restoring peatlands, agroecosystems and forests holds great potential to safeguard carbon
stocks and increase sequestration.
•  Theoretically, restoring 90% of terrestrial Annex I habitats which are in not good or unknown
condition to good condition could lead to a total carbon stock between 2,858 and 9,210 million
tC in the EU and sequester around 286 MtCO2eq/year [1]. While the time needed to achieve
these  rates  would  largely  exceed  the  2030  deadline,  these  figures  illustrate  the  theoretical
magnitude of the carbon storage and sequestration benefits which could be achieved by Article
4 of the nature restoration law.
•  Events such as forest fires, floods and droughts will become more frequent and severe with
climate change over this decade. These events release large amounts of stored carbon into the
atmosphere. Restoration can increase the resilience of habitats to climate events and reduce
their impact on carbon stocks.
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN WITH NO RESTORATION?
•  If nature restoration is not scaled up, the EEA projects a decrease in the overall level of net
removals  for  the  period  2020-2040,  with  an  average  of  200  MtCO2e  removed  each  year  -
compared to the historic average of 300 MtCO2e for the period 1990-2019 [2]. This would
mean the EU is very likely to fail to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

Why is nature restoration critical for climate mitigation in the EU?
Peatlands
Peatlands cover around 3% of the EU-27 agricultural area – yet emit 25% of the EU’s annual
emissions from agricultural land [3].
WHAT CAN THE NRL ACHIEVE?
WHAT  WOULD  HAPPEN  WITH

NO RESTORATION?
•  The  restoration  of  peatland  and  wetland
The IPCC estimate that if no rewetting is
Annex  I  habitats  under  Article  4  could
done,  emissions  from  peatland  would
achieve  additional  net  GHG  mitigation
take  up  12-42%  of  the  global  emission
benefits  between  7.8  and  22.8  million
budget needed to keep warming below
tCO2eq/year to 2030 and between 26.7 and
1.5-2°C [7].
62.9  MtCO2eq/year  to  2050  [4].  The

technical  mitigation  potential  of  rewetting
and restoring all EU peatlands is much larger

–  it  is  estimated  at  about  185

MtCO2eq/year,  on  average  for  the  2020-

2050 period [5].

•  Rewetting  35%  of  the  total  area  of
agriculturally  used  peatlands  in  the  EU

under  Article  9.4  will  reduce  their  total

emissions by 25% (around 45 Mt CO2eq)

[6].
Keava raba, Ohekatku, Rapla County, Estonia, Photo by
Single.Earth
Agroecosystems
Restoring agroecosystems can re-establish their natural carbon cycling and storage capacities -
thereby  achieving  climate  mitigation  benefits  through  avoiding  some  current  emissions  and
enhancing carbon sinks.
WHAT CAN THE NRL ACHIEVE?
WHAT  WOULD  HAPPEN  WITH
•  Increasing  soil  organic  carbon  stocks  on
NO RESTORATION?
arable  land  in  the  EU  under  Article  9.2(b)
Under a business-as-usual scenario, soil
could achieve an additional sequestration
organic  carbon  (SOC)  is  predicted  to
of 50.48 million tCO2eq/year [8].
increase between 12.8 and 13.9-14.1 Gt
•  The
economically
feasible
carbon
in cropland by 2050, and from 6.7 to 8.9-
sequestration potential of EU27 agricultural
9.4  Gt  in  pastures  [5].  This  is  much  less
soils  is  at  least  20  million  tCO2eq/year,
than  what  can  be  achieved  through
whilst the maximum technically achievable
restoration.
carbon sequestration potential could be 200
million tCO2eq/year [9].
Institute for European Environmental Policy (2022)

Why is nature restoration critical for climate mitigation in the EU?
Forests
Forests are the largest carbon sink in the EU, sequestering around one tenth of Europe’s gross
CO2 emissions in 2020 [10]. They have the highest sequestration rate of any terrestrial habitat
[2]. Their natural capacities, however, are decreasing, and forests have started to become net
sources of emissions in many EU member states, due to increased harvesting, climate change,
forest  fires,  and  pest  damage  [11-12].  The  nature  restoration  law  proposal  also  requires  no
further degradation of existing forest habitats important for biodiversity (Annex I habitats), which
includes  old  growth  forests.  Restoring,  re-establishing,  and  adapting  forest  habitats  to
climate change can significantly contribute to climate mitigation by increasing the forest
carbon sink and avoiding emissions.
WHAT CAN THE NRL ACHIEVE?
WHAT  WOULD  HAPPEN  WITH
Restoring  forests  and  making  forests  more
NO RESTORATION?
resilient  to  climate  change  is  estimated  to
Without  restoration,  forests’  carbon
have  an  additional  mitigation  potential  in
storage  potential  may  decline  by  180
the order of 90 to 180 million tCO2/year by
million  tCO2eq  annually  from  2021-
2040  [13].  Recent  studies  estimate
2030,  reducing  the  sink  by  more  than
significantly  larger  potentials  of  up  to  440
50%  [14].  Many  forests  are  already
million tCO2eq/year, which could double the
becoming net sources of emissions and
climate mitigation potential of forests by 2050
this risk will increase as climate change
[4].
increases the risks of forest disasters and
as  the  intensity  of  forest  management
increases.

Eibsee, Grainau, Germany, Photo by Daniel Seßler
Not  all  nature  restoration  will  increase  or  safeguard  carbon  –  sometimes  saving
biodiversity means losing carbon but increasing long-term habitat resilience.
•  On  heaths,  scrub  habitats,  and  grasslands,  actions  that  increase  carbon  and  biomass  –
planting trees or adding nutrients or letting the habitats get overgrown - can destroy their
biodiversity value.
•  Restoration  actions  may  remove  carbon  by  cutting  down  trees  planted  on  peat  bogs  or
heaths, clearing overgrowth on abandoned grasslands, or cutting away over-fertile soil and
vegetation.
•  Restoration can prevent or minimize fire risk in these habitats, which can avoid significant
emissions in future.
Institute for European Environmental Policy (2022)

Why is nature restoration critical for climate mitigation in the EU?
Peatland restoration reduces emissions and global
warming potential of restored sites
The LIFE PEAT RESTORE project contributed to rewetting degraded peatlands
to restore their function as carbon sinks in five EU countries around the Baltic
Sea  (Germany,  Poland,  Lithuania,  Latvia,  and  Estonia)  on  an  area  of  5,300
hectares.  The  preliminary  results  in  2021  showed  that  the  peatland
management and restoration actions support CO2 uptake or reduction of CO2
emissions and has shown first steps of recovery towards functional peatland
ecosystems.
It is estimated that around 30% of the global warming potential of all sites
was reduced, amounting to 14,500 tons CO2eq/year [15].

Viru bog, Kolga, Harju County, Estonia, Photo by Jaanus Jagomägi
Funded  by  the  European  Union.  Views  and  opinions  expressed  are
however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those
of  the  European  Union  or  CINEA.  Neither  the  European  Union  nor
CINEA can be held responsible for them.
These  policy  briefs  were  written  by  IEEP  and

Ecologic  Institute  in  the  Think  Sustainable

Europe Network in response to the proposed
EU nature restoration law.

Why is nature restoration critical for climate mitigation in the EU?
References
1.  Kopsieker, L., G. Costa Domingo, and E. Underwood, Climate mitigation potential of large-scale restoration in Europe. Analysis of
the  climate  mitigation  potential  of  restoring  habitats  listed  in  Annex  I  of  the  Habitats  Directive.  2021,  Institute  for  European
Environmental Policy.
2.  EEA,  Carbon  stocks  and  sequestration  in  terrestrial  and  marine  ecosystems:  a  lever  for  nature  restoration?  2022,  European
Environmental Agency.
3.  Greifswald Mire Centre, Peatlands in the EU. Common agricultural policy (CAP) after 2020. 2020, Greifswald Mire Centre: Germany.
4.  European Commission, IMPACT ASSESSMENT REPORT Accompanying the document Proposal for a Regulation of the European
Parliament and the Council amending Regulations (EU) 2018/841 as regards the scope, simplifying the compliance rules, setting
out the targets of the Member States for 2030 and committing to the collective achievement of climate neutrality by 2035 in the
land use, forestry and agriculture sector, and (EU) 2018/1999 as regards improvement in monitoring, reporting, tracking of progress
and review, in COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT. 2021, European Commission: Brussels.
5.  Andrés, P., et al., Agricultural potential in carbon sequestration: Humus content of land used for agriculture and CO2 storage.
2022, European Parliament Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies: Brussels.
6.  Greifswald Mire Centre and Wetlands International, Higher ambition for peatlands in the EU Nature Restoration Law proposal.
2022, Greifswald Mire Centre and Wetlands International Europe.
7.  Leifeld, J., C. Wüst-Galley, and S. Page, Intact and managed peatland soils as a source and sink of GHGs from 1850 to 2100. Nature
Climate Change, 2019. 9: p. 1-3.
8.  Lugato,  E.,  et  al.,  Potential  carbon  sequestration  of  European  arable  soils  estimated  by  modelling  a  comprehensive  set  of
management practices. Global Change Biology, 2014. 20(11): p. 3557-3567.
9.  Smith, P., Agricultural  greenhouse gas mitigation potential  globally, in Europe and in the UK: what have we learnt  in the last
20 years? Global Change Biology, 2012. 18(1): p. 35-43.
10.  Grassi, G., et al., On the realistic contribution of European forests to reach climate objectives. Carbon Balance and Management,
2019. 14(1): p. 8.
11.  Booth, M.S., Burning up the carbon sink: How the EU’s forest biomass policy undermines climate mitigation, and how it can be
reformed. 2022, Partnership for Policy Integrity.
12.  Statistics Finland, Greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 remained on level with the previous year, the land use sector a net source of
emissions for the first time. 2022, Statistics Finland: Helsinki, Finland.
13.  Nabuurs, G.-J., et al., By 2050 the mitigation effects of EU forests could nearly double through climate smart forestry. Forests, 2017.
8(12): p. 484.
14.  Seidl, R., et al., Increasing forest disturbances in Europe and their impact on carbon storage. Nature Climate Change, 2014. 4(9): p.
806-810.
15.  Jurema, L., et al., Layman report LIFE Peat Restore, Restoring peatlands for climate. 2022.