EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Ref. Ares(2023)5703258 - 21/08/2023
DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS
Africa
Regional and Multi-Country Programmes for Africa
Brussels,
devco.a.2.dir
For the attention of
Subject:
, Mission report CASCADES event – London (11-13 October 2022)
Visa plus comments, if necessary
Visa plus comments, if necessary
Transmission to DG: Yes/No
PURPOSE AND PROGRAMME OF THE MISSION
CASCADES is a Horizon 2020 research project which identifies how the risks posed by climate change
to countries, economies and peoples beyond Europe might cascade into Europe. It does so by
analysing how these risks interact with major challenges facing European societies. The project aims
at designing a coherent European policy framework to address these risks. CASCADES is entering its
final phase hence, as I am responsible for the climate portfolio in the regional Africa unit I was
invited to participate and notably present the EU’s action on climate under the Global Gateway.
I first attended on the 11 October an expert workshop on
Supporting climate-resilient infrastructure
for sustainable agri-food systems in Africa and the Middle East, followed by a policy simulation event
on the 12 October to have some early feedback on the model they are developing and share my
views on their recommendations. A colleague from INTPA G5 and several EIB representatives also
participated alongside various stakeholders from the DFIs, CSOs, research, Member States and UK
ministries.
Summary:
1. 11 October - workshop on “Supporting climate-resilient infrastructure for sustainable agri-food
systems in Africa and the Middle East”
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS
Africa
Regional and Multi-Country Programmes for Africa
The workshop brought together various actors to explore the role of external support in developing
sustainable, climate- and conflict-resilient agri-food systems in Africa and the Middle East. In that
context investments that support agri-food systems such as those connected to the Great Green
Wall as well as the Global Gateway overall and its financing agendas were a focus of the workshop. I
delivered a “tour d’horizon” of major Team Europe Initiatives such as the TEI on Adaptation and
Resilience and explained how they operationalise the Global Gateway Investment Package. The
Netherlands and EIB then presented their work on the topic of climate sensitivity in investments. A
follow-up conversation was then held:
Main takeways:
• DFIs underlined how challenging financing climate-resilient project is given the “extra costs”
induced by enhanced standards. Moreover, they outline the relative inappropriateness of
their instruments in targeting the micro-level, reinforce in the agricultural sector by the
difficult access to land and credit for vulnerable populations and the youth.
• Stakeholders insisted on the link between climate fragility and the crisis in the Sahel and the
migration flows from Western Africa and in the MENA as well, regarding the food/energy
nexus as a fundamental to address migration outbursts.
• The difficult inclusion of the private sector and of bringing in investments was also stressed.
Compared to climate mitigation (energy investments for instance), the absorption capacity
of climate adaptive agricultural practices is much lower, given for insistence the average size
of plots and the fact that much is state-owned in Africa. A related issue
• African stakeholders pointed out the importance of building an enabling environment and
have regional food systems in place. This also include that states should have the relevant
data in place to make sure they absorb shocks, for instance inventories of critical
infrastructures.
2. 12 October - Cascading Climate Impacts Policy Simulation
The policy simulation itself lasted the entire day:
Participants first picked their role, ranging from the European Commission DGs to Member States
ministries, UN Agencies, DFI, private sector companies or NGOS. I for instance picked the Swedish
ministry for Foreign Affairs and was provided with a briefing for my role.
We were then introduced to the basic scenario for the simulation, set in 2026-20228: the globe was
subject to a number of socio-political crisis (social unrest, food prices spiking, value chain
disruptions) which all had cascading effects upon one another. Some of the scenario videos are
available here Cascading Climate Impacts: The Future of Food (socialsimulations.org).
We were then divided in multiple groups, one discussing finance, the other discussing trade and the
last one discussing policies, which I picked. As the scenario developed, organisers added
unanticipated events (unrest following elections in Brazil, etc.) and we had to find solutions to those
cascading events: we tabled policy proposals and adopted them via a phone application voting
system. Representatives then presented the adopted policy proposals to the other groups.
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
DIRECTORATE-GENERAL FOR INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS
Africa
Regional and Multi-Country Programmes for Africa
Main takeways:
The simulation was a fun interactive exercise and interesting options were outlined. Participants
then gathered to feed these perspectives into two question: What are the main cascading risks?
What are potential avenues to address them?
Major risks first relate:
• at the landscape level to environmental degradation and deforestation, disasters (droughts
and floods) and pest outbreaks
• It then concern the interdependency of value chains (transport, storage) and hyper-
dependencies of countries in events of blockades, protectionism or climate events
Interesting ideas emerged such as:
• Windfall taxes on food multinationals in the event of spiking food prices.
• The use of the multilateral stages to define a real global vision for food systems and enhance
cooperation on biodiversity loss or deforestation.
• Early warning systems and policies to anticipate, manage disasters.
• Insurance systems that integrate a cross-sector elements in case of disruption so that
winners pay for losers.
• Localised energy production, resilient to disruptions, and generally localised supply chains,
well integrated with trade routes in case of local disruptions
• Sustainable production of food, landscape approaches and forest management.
Next steps and follow-up:
• CASCADES had a virtual pavilion at COP27 where they will be able to showcase their
preliminary results and collect additional feedback.
• I had a bilateral meeting after COP27, on the 28th November, with the CASCADES team to
explain the EU external cooperation action and discuss early recommendations.
• I will have another chat with the team around March when recommendations are more
fleshed-out. They should be more tailored as well to INTPA’s operational needs. The final
deliverable should be out around April.
Signature of official on mission
(e-signed)
Annex:
-
Agenda of the event
